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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis January 17, 2014

I finally have my internet back. I had to pay my connection at the internet service company to come over and set me up on a different server to get it going, or I would still be waiting for the company to send somebody out, or get the server I was connected to back up and running. Im glad to be back and have my own charts.

The EUR/USD did not get the push I expected to the downside yesterday but since it also didn’t show much conviction to the upside I will still have the small bias for the short. The best level I see for the short is the 1.3632 area around the 1hr 200 EMA but they could push it as high as 1.3647 if the current Asia lows hold. If they do push it down and test the lows this morning then the Asia highs become a place to look for the manipulation. Having said that considering its Friday I have my doubts. I will be open for the long from the lows during the London or NY session but I will want to see the stop run and/or clear signals that they wont let it pass 1.3582.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD had similar price action and having the two previous pushes I have a little stronger bias for the next push today. However again since we will see some end of week flows they may hold it in the chop again today. The best level for the short will be yesterdays highs but I will also be watching the 4hr 200 EMA if they test it during the London session. Since there is already a 30+ pip Asian range the highs are a valid place to look for trapping and with the 4hr 200 just above it has a good chance of holding there. I will only consider the long if its clear they wont let it break the lows. The 1.6315 level is a significant daily low and I will want a good entry and only hold for the 40-50 pips since its against the overall smart money trend and I will be looking to see the end of week flows run it up to test the range highs.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The only significant news release today is the UK Retail Sales figures. Expectations are for a slight rise so I expect that if it surprises upwards there will be a bigger reaction than a disappointment. Otherwise there is some medium impact events scheduled from the US but being mostly housing data I highly doubt there will be much movement from it. Even the Michigan Consumer Sentiment later in the day has had much less impact as of late since we found out the figures are released to the big banks well ahead of the official release.

Have a great weekend


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