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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis January 27, 2014

The EUR/USD has a clean thee push move over two days at the end of last week. However it also has the reversal after reaching the highs at 1.3738. It seems as though there is no real conviction to push it higher but keeping an open mind on direction today is the best option. The level for a good entry short is at 1.3718 which coincides with a daily level from the past. Considering the 20 pip spike above that Friday there will have to be some clear trapping showing they wont let price pass there to take an entry. Otherwise I will wait for a test of the highs. As for a long position the 1.3667 has the best opportunity. Having said that I would prefer to see the breakout traders at the Asian highs or 1.3700 played before seeing the same at the lows. It will add probability to the long and with the short Asian range right now it seems that they aren’t doing much this morning.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD made the reversal Friday dropping 178 pips from the highs so with that I will have the bias for the next push down today. The problem is the large move being what we would look for in a three push move. At this point I would normally expect a deeper pullback before the push due to the inefficient run down but there will have to be conviction above 1.6529 to get that leaving some doubt. There is also the correlation factor with the EUR/GBP having two very clean pushes to the upside. So if they run the third on that pair today the GU will drop to test the lows around 1.6400 and the 4hr 200 ema. The best level I see for the short is at 1.6529 with that being 50 pips away from the lows. Otherwise they will close any inefficiency running to 1.6555 or higher. I will be open for a long but will prefer to see the run to test the lows or see price action screaming they wont let it pass Fridays lows.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The Economic Calendar is slow as normal for a Monday. We do have German IFO Business climate early in the London session. Expectations are for it to improve again getting above the 100 level. Considering the recent news from Germany there is not much reason it wont be as expected or better which will most likely run the third push on the EG and as long as there is not much interest in pushing the EU higher we will get the next push down on GU.

The US has New Home sales expected to drop a little. As long as its not a major disappointment I don’t expect too much from the EU on it. If it does miss significant to the downside then the EU will benefit and the opposite for a much better print. Having said that with the way the news releases are being manipulated these days nothing would surprise me.

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