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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis June 21, 2013

Well we did see the next push down on the EUR/USD as expected yesterday. However it started in early Asia and never looked back enough to give me a clear entry. I will say there was something on the table for aggressive Chad but I kept him locked in the box since I have had a darn good week so far. I have to say as I look at the markets there seemed to be blood in the water and the sharks were out. or maybe a better analogy is there a new predator at the top of the food chain called REALITY and the sharks were running for the doors. Everything got hit from the S&P, the Dow, and Commodities. Of course the CME did a 25% margin hike on gold so that had to be a part of the commodities sell off as many got an automatic margin call. Of course fueling the sell of even more. Interesting to say the least.

Considering price action alone I will be bias for the short today but from the looks of things right this moment they may be doing more of a pullback before they move it off and might not break the lows but just give the push up first and then test the lows. I think there will be some scrambling to get some gains back in equities since its Friday and that will drag the Euro up as long as it can last. Then the drop will ensue.

The levels I will be watching are the current Asian highs at 1.3245 because the range is already 46 pips along with the 1.3261 level if that breaks. It could get as high as the hourly 200 at 1.3287 but it will take some real desire on the part of the big boys to dump that kind of money just to prop the markets up for awhile. Im not totally going to ignore the possibility for a long but only on a clean hourly stop run to the lows.

EUR/USD 1hr chart June 21, 2013

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The GBP/USD really didn’t do much of anything yesterday but did close higher on the day while the EUR/GBP took a beating rather than the ramp up it got Wednesday. Funny how things change overnight these days like that. I would have to say that when they say the markets are broke due to the print fest, that is an understatement of understatements. The good thing for us is the big boys still have footprints and we can follow 😉

My bias for the short on this pair is smaller than the Euro today. the run down has reached what we usually look for the reversal in pips and it couldn’t make the push down for a clean third so the possibility for the reversal is a little higher. Since the Asian range is tight so far I will be wanting to see some playing of the breakout traders to give me a more clear sense of direction. Right now the Asia highs look best to be looking for a short. being the 20 level the GU likes so much it may just hold. If they do push above it the next level to watch is 1.5564. In order to take the long I will be watching the breakout level at 1.5482 but want to see the breakout traders played at the highs of Asia first. I would prefer a long from manipulation at the 1.5449 daily level though and would like to see Asia push below 1.5482 first.

GBP/USD 1hr chart June 21, 2013

Forex News Today

The calendar is pretty much void of any good news to report for the EU and GU but for you USD/CAD traders there are some big ones for Canada.

Rick Santelli Rant

When I found this video for you guys this morning I had already wrote the commentary and I almost fell out of my chair laughing when Rick says something about the REALITY of the situation and Ben (the deer in the headlights) Bernankes fear of something. Maybe its the figurative on coming car? Im thinking we should demote Ben from “helicopter” to that. What do you thin? Enjoy the video it is a good one.

A Friday Treat

It just wasn’t enough for Rick to rake Deer in the headlights Ben over the coals but this interview with the mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath was pretty good on both sides. Rick didn’t go psycho as usual but even though by the official numbers inflation in the US is low if we don’t count the things everybody needs to live and work (food and gas). Rick does make a very valid point that the inflation caused has been exported to the world rather that hit home in the US where its just waiting like a lion ready to pounce once the Fed does trying to start unwind that balance sheet. Interesting video. Enjoy.

Have a great weekend


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  1. Arthur Ockwell
    Arthur Ockwell June 21, 06:00

    Hi there. Please can you expand on what the “CME” is and why the 25% margin call moved things?

    Reply to this comment
    • Chad
      Chad June 21, 07:55

      Hi Arthur
      The CME is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and they handle commodities. What they did was raise the margin requirements to trade gold. What that does is require every one holding gold contracts to increase the size of their account to fund the gold contracts they hold and if they don’t they have to liquidate their contracts their holding. Therefore pushing the price down further. Then that will have an effect other commodities too along with the S&P and Dow dropping effecting risk spilling over and other commodities getting hit.


      Reply to this comment
  2. Arthur Ockwell
    Arthur Ockwell June 22, 06:21

    Thank you.

    Reply to this comment

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