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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis March 1, 2013

Here we are at the beginning of a new month and things couldn’t be much foggier on the EUR/USD . I was concerned that the push to the upside may be false but there was nothing all that clear telling me to take the short yesterday and to be honest not much supporting the long either so I remained flat on the day. Now we are looking at a potential first intraday push to the downside and back into a third push chop scenario. Its not going to be all that clear until we see the close below the lows Tuesday of 1.3017 but with a 110 push down that has 3 clear intraday pushes does give me a slight bias for the short today. The manipulation will need to be rather clear because of the risk involved in taking trades in the middle of a third push chop. I will be open for a long position but will need to see the clear stop run to the lows around 1.3040 to take it. All the while knowing the potential to test 1.3016 is there so I will want a nice deep entry. 

The levels I will be looking at are 1.3094 for the short. The psyche level of 1.3200 is right there adding some confluence and if it breaks that without seeing the manipulation the chances are it will test the highs at 1.3137 or higher. Any long will only be considered at the 1.3041 level or lower with a clear stop run.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on March 1, 2013

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The GBP/USD is looking even more precarious in this range still. I can see 2 intraday pushes up but this high holding  along with a clear head and shoulders pattern giving more credence for the short is confusing to say the least. The safest way to trade this pair today will be from yesterdays highs or lows with preferably the hourly stop run showing manipulation candle patterns on the 15 minute chart. I will be keeping an eye on the psych level at 1.5200 since the shoulders are there but the manipulation will need to be clear since the next level to the highs is beyond my 20 pip stop from there. Otherwise a stop run to yesterdays lows at 1.5148 will be good for a long position, however if the hourly candle closes below I will close for a smaller loss since the next level to test is 28 pips away.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on March 1, 2013

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases start off with Manufacturing PMI data from several European countries today. With most of them already below the 50 expansion level Germany will be the one to watch. Its PMI numbers are expected at 50.1 so a disappointment here will be Euro negative. 

The UK also has Manufacturing PMI data expected to improve and being around the 51 level the best chance for increased volatility will be a surprise below 50. 

The US has the same PMI data but more important is the ISM Manufacturing Index late in the trading day. There is also the Core PCE Price Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment but baring a large miss on these there should be much reaction.

Some Friday Humor

Im sure everybody could use a good laugh these days and here is something I found quite comical. It compares the economic systems that are fighting for a foot hold on societies around the world. Of course with a comical twist. No offence to the New Zealanders out there 😉

A tale of two Cows


Have a great weekend


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