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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis March 28, 2014

We do have a first push with some conviction to the downside today. My problem with it is we need the two day move in order to account for it. On top of that its Friday and the second to last trading day of the month so we will most likely have the month end flows hamper a large move. Having said that I will have the bias for the next push down but will still be open to take the long from the lows at 1.3730 with a nice stop run after hitting the breakout traders to the Asian highs.

The best levels for the preferred short today are at 1.3775 and 1.3753. The lower level is rather close to current price so I will want to see them hit the overall lows and at least leave the Asian box close to there since the Asian range will still be a little tight for comfort. Otherwise I would prefer the 1.3775 level with the confluence of the four hour 200 EMA.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD made the second push yesterday thanks to the much better than expected Retail Sales figures from the UK so I will have the bias for the third push today. Considering that its the end of the month and week I will be slightly open for a short from the highs but it will take a lot of convincing to get me short. Essentially I wont be treating it as a long only day due to the potential for them to hold price below the highs with the end of month flows.

The best level for the long today is at the 1.6595 level that was held by the US session yesterday but if they do make a decent push during the Asian session they have a good chance of turning at the psych 1.6600 or Asian lows. If they do run it up and widen the Asian range substantially along with leaving the Asian box close to the highs I will be open to see manipulation at the middle of the Asian range after getting the breakout traders at the highs and a clean set up. They may only need to hit the ones that put their stops at the middle of the Asian range if they push the Asian range to around 50 pips.

GU 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

The most significant release today is UK GDP figures. There is a decent chance it will be better than expected with the Retail sales data yesterday. This will most likely get us the third push on the GBP/USD. If it disappoints then the probability goes down since we are dealing with the end of month flows.

The US has a few medium impact events with Consumer Spending, Core PCE Price Index and Michigan Consumer Confidence but these have had little impact on whether the Fed will keep the taper going so I don’t expect much from them today.

Have a great weekend


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