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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis October 4th 2013

Happy Non Farm Payroll day. NOT. The US government has postponed the release of the NFP figures due to the shut down and there will be nobody to release the figures. They have been furloughed and will be sitting at home or on a taxpayer funded vacation. My thoughts are they just don’t want to release the figures because they don’t want us to know how bad the labor market is while there is no one there to spin it to keep any panic from setting in. I am just joking but that scenario would not surprise me at all.

The potential first push I mentioned in yesterdays commentary ended up being the direction they were going to push. There wasn’t any conviction until the US session with worse unemployment data giving the reason to make the push. I did take the short during the live London training session yesterday that ran up and missed my stop by less that a pip before going back below my entry just before the US market open so I manually closed it at a small gain. I don’t want to be holding a trade into the opening of a session and news unless it has moved enough to at least get my stop to break even.

Today I will be expecting the next push up while keeping in mind that the end of week flows could slow it down and keep it in a chop. I highly doubt it will reverse on those flows but its possible. The probability is they will run at last to the 1.3660 daily level or even make a run to the most recent overall highs around 1.3700. Its a bit doubtful with out NFP to help the push but its entirely possible that the big boys will have somebody inside the BLS getting them the figures anyway.

 The best level for the long right now is around 1.3600 but if it can make the push up to test the highs during Asia this morning then the range between 1.3614 and 1.3606 becomes significant enough for them to trap there before the push.

EU 1hr chart Oct. 4th 2013

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The GBP/USD ran the opposite direction while the EUR/GBP ran north with the EU almost doubling its average daily range. At this point we have a potential second push down after a fake intraday push. I can never say enough how I hate it when this happens with the EG but we still have to deal with what we have. This could be just another fake out and we will need either the second push on the EU to fail or the EUR/GBP to make another push like yesterday if it does go up. If those two scenarios don’t happen the GU will go back into the range and stay there today.

I will have a smaller than usual bias for the short here today and will need a very clear signal in order to change that bias to take a long. The best level for the short is the 1.6190 where there is proven resistance yesterday and at that level the push from the lows will be wide enough for them to have trapped enough longs. Otherwise they may run it as high as 1.6220.

GU 1hr chart Oct. 4th 2013

Forex News Today

The economic calendar has nothing but the BOJ press conference which could create some volatility depending on what they throw out. There will probably be more detail of the stimulus package but we never know.

Other than that there is three members of the Fed speaking later in the day so depending on what they say on where thy stand with more printing we may get something from that but considering that the Bernanke speech earlier this week didn’t get much. Nor has the others as of late so the chance they mean nothing is there too.

Have a great weekend


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