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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Commentary February 13, 2013

The EUR/USD has finally shown us some direction with a first push to the upside yesterday. Once it made the hourly close above Mondays highs they pretty much showed their hand. There was a rather ugly set up for the New York reversal but it wasn’t clear enough for me to take the long position and once it shifted away I went to bed. 

Today I will be expecting the second push to the upside and looking at the 1.3439 level for the manipulation to begin with. Since it is in close proximity to price right now there is a decent chance they will run down and test either Mondays highs or the support at 1.3409. The issue I have with those 2 levels is we could see the manipulation anywhere in the area between them so the manipulation will need to be pretty clear and I will want to have my stop below the 1.3409 level to be safe.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Feb. 13, 2013

The GBP/USD made what the clearer scenario would be a second push and then reversal. Having said that, as I was saying in the live session yesterday there is the chance that they run 2 or even the 3 pushes in one large move when they move the market over the 150 pip minimum we want to see for a clear 3 push run. The move from the highs Friday to the lows Monday was around 200 pips. Now that we have a 95 pip push down and the reversal up in one day it clears that up much more. My bias will be long this pair today but what does concern me is the best high probability point is rather close at 1.5644.

What I would prefer to see is the Asian range hold at the established lows right now and then get the push downward for the manipulation at 1.5644. Otherwise if they do want to test down further the next breakout level of 1.5624 will be where I look to see some trapping patterns. It also coincides with the daily lows from back on Feb 5th and 6th so it may just get there for a test.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Feb 13, 2013

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Forex News Today

The scheduled releases start today with Industrial Production from the Euro Zone. Its expected to improve and get above negative figures and to be honest I dont understand why. If it does surprise to the upside it will be Euro positive and if it disappoints I doubt it will have much effect.

The UK has the BOE Inflation Report and Governor King speaking about it. The market will be watching for the downgrade of growth or anything that gives clues to more Asset Purchases. With the Inflation Letter out yesterday they will also be looking for any additional remarks that weren’t in there but they usually keep pretty close. We will have to wait and see.

The US has Retail Sales figures expected to drop to just above the big ZERO. If it has a miss to the downside it will most likely create some USD weakness and the Euro and GBP will have a good day against the USD during the New York session. There is also a 10-Year Note Auction later in the day but since the Fed is buying everything the US issues I doubt there will be anything to see here.

Happy Trading


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