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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Commentary March 13, 2013

We did get the second push I was looking for yesterday on the EUR/USD. I admit its lack luster at best with only an 80 pip push but the deep pullback during the US session tells me that its most likely finished. The stop run to the 1.3000 level during the live room yesterday didnt convince me they were going to turn and I missed the long opportunity but I followed my plan and all is good. 

Today I will be cautiously looking to see the third intraday push but I am concerned that on the daily chart it is still fighting the 200 EMA and holding below. With that said and with it holding in this 180 pip range they could easily be loading up for the break in either direction so i will be open for the short today also.

The levels I will be watching are the hourly 200 EMA at 1.3053 along with yesterdays high at 1.3073 for the short opportunity if we get the push up during the beginning of the London session. Otherwise I will prefer the long from the 1.3014 level at the proven support level during the US session yesterday.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on March 13, 2013

The GBP/USD did see a 100 pip push down before reversing with a better bottoming formation that is holding for the time being. It also held the daily support level I mentioned in Tuesdays commentary at 1.4857 after the push down on the worse than expected Mfg Production figures. At this point I think its best to treat this pair as the third push chop since it could be done and reverse from this point. This push up during the Asian session is more due to EUR/GBP weakness than anything so I am not going to read too much into it. having said that if we see an hourly close above Mondays highs during the London session I will be bias for the long and be looking for manipulation around the Asia lows at 1.4891. Otherwise if there is a clean 1 hour stop run above Mondays highs then I will be looking to short.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on March 13, 2013

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Forex News Today

There isn’t much for news today until we get to the US session with Retail sales figures. Expected at a mere 0.2% for the Core figures and 0.5% for the headline a surprise below the big zero is possible and more probable than a surprise upward in my opinion. The reason is even with the jobs data being what some call great. the jobs created were mostly part time and the unemployment rate drop had alot to do with people running our of unemployment insurance. I have serious doubts considering this that these part time workers much less the people not getting checks anymore will be running out and spending money. Just my 2 cents and stranger things have happened. 🙂

Happy trading


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