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EUR/USD, GBP/USD December 11, 2013 Daily Analysis


The EUR/USD held another 50+ pip range yesterday finding the resistance at the daily 1.3784 level before pulling back. Considering the average daily range has tightened to a mere 75 pips I will be treating this as a potential third push preferring the short but open on direction. With the last pushes showing little conviction the probability for the short goes up. That along with the significant daily level getting rejected just adds to that.

As I mentioned in the live London training session yesterday there has been more talk today of a sort of token taper from the Fed this month. This also fits in with the price action of late with the big boys not willing to push the Euro on any conviction. At this point with Ben leaving at the end of the year I think they just may do it to show that they can. Until of course the market tanks and they are proven wrong yet again. However we just never know, we may actually see the Fed get brave and really pull away the punch bowl. I know that just sounds nuts but it could happen. Highly unlikely but I never say never with such things. 

The best level I see for the short today is the daily 1.3784 but they may only run stops to just below at 1.3774 or even poke above the overall highs so I will be cautious and want a good entry. If by chance we see the hourly conviction below yesterdays lows in the London session today then the Asian highs come into play for an entry or even the middle of the range if they widen it enough during Asia this morning. Otherwise I will be open for the long today but only with a clear stop run to yesterdays lows and a few trapping patterns.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD also went into a chop yesterday so I will have a small bias for the next push up but also open for the short. If they really do think the Fed will do the token taper then this will follow the Euro on USD strength and we will have the false push up. If this chop holds during the London session then I will be more open for the short since the longer they don’t make the move for the next push the likelihood of this being a false push goes up.

The best level for the long is yesterdays lows at 1.6418 but they may hold it at the current Asian lows coinciding with Mondays high. In order to take the long there I will want to see the breakout traders played at the highs first or at least see price leave the Asian box close to its highs and have clear manipulation at the lows. The best level for a short is at 1.6457 or the overall highs. With this pair coming into daily levels from 2011 they will need some conviction to run it up and I have my doubts its really there since they didn’t make the push yesterday. On top of that at the end of this week is when most traders normally take off for the holidays. This also adds to the probability they wont break it upwards.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The Economic Calendar today don’t have any significant news releases so barring any tape bombs things should be rather quiet on large moves. There is the US budget balance and a 10yr bond auction but they are after our trading hours.

Happy Trading


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  1. ernest
    ernest December 11, 13:54

    Hi,Chad I want to ask if if how does the market react during tapering specially in EU and GU pair?


    Reply to this comment
    • Chad
      Chad Author January 07, 00:14

      Hi Ernest,
      The tapering if it really happens will cause USD strength but to be honest I doubt they will do much more than the token taper we have now and if equities keep slumping like they are they will not only take the token taper back but increase it down the road adding the 10bil a month back in don’t keep stocks going upward.

      Reply to this comment

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