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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis July 10, 2014

The EUR/USD made the second push with a little help from the “all is well” Fed minutes yesterday. Now all they have to do is somehow get wages increasing and people back to work and they may just have a shot at making that come true. Even though I have my doubts I guess anything is possible.

I will be expecting the third push here today with the best level down at 1.3619 at the hourly 200. However considering the distance from current price I have my doubts it will get there. With the 1.3638 also a valid level today I would prefer to see yesterdays highs hold during the Asian session and see the conviction above before the pullback to test it. Otherwise I will consider the four hour 200 at 1.3632 but with no other level for confluence there it will have to be a darn nice set up.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD made a clear attempt at the third push before getting rejected short of Tuesdays lows then making the reversal thanks to the Fed. At this point I will be considering it as a clear first push looking to see the second today. I will be a little cautious of the fake out if Asia shows conviction but there isn’t any other signs of that so I will hold my bias for the long until they show me something clear to change that. The best level for the long is 1.7145 but they may dip as low as 1.7136. If there is true conviction above yesterdays highs then the Asian lows come into play but so far its looking like they will wait for London to show that. What I will need to see in order to consider the short is clear signs they wont let it rise beyond yesterdays highs during the London session preferring to get a low risk entry while keeping an eye on the hourly candles close.

GU 1hr chart

The EUR/JPY made the clear reversal for a first long term push as well. Again I was tempted to take the clean set up this morning but with the UJ not agreeing I am waiting for more info since it again had a conviction close below the 138.52 level. I still may enter since its giving some good reasons to over look the conviction but I need more information first. Preferably something from the UJ but if there is no interest in pushing to the next level down then I will wait for a good entry and take the long. If I don’t take that this morning I will be looking to the Asian lows for the long during London but would prefer to see them push to 138.42 and see the set up there. Otherwise if they do run it up from here I will look for a backside entry from Tuesdays highs of 138.62 or yesterdays highs if it runs up far enough. There is the chance for this being a false push so I will watch yesterdays highs for signs they wont let it pass during London today.

EJ 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The only significant news release during the London session today is the ECB Monthly report. This usually reflects the previous press conference pretty close so I don’t expect much unless they surprise for some reason. Later just before the NY open is the UK rate decision and Asset Purchase facility. This could make the GBP get a little nuts depending on if there is any hints of Carneys “rates will rise sooner than many expect” speech.

The US has Thursday Unemployment Claims now being marked as medium impact since we all know the Fed don’t care about unemployment any more. Expectations are for a flat 315k so it will take a big miss to create anything substantial. Otherwise they will still be digesting the Fed meeting minutes and dealing with what comes from the BOE today.

Happy Trading


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