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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY July 16, 2014 Analysis

Todays commentary is getting out late due to an early appointment I had this morning so I will get straight to the point.

The EUR/USD I will be bias for the short today with the best level to see manipulation at 1.3575. However if they want to run stops they will go higher around 1.3580. If they want to close the inefficient move then a test of 1.3588 will happen. Otherwise with the way its been holding the lows during Asia they may only run to the Asia highs but the set up will need to be clear with the tight Asian range.

EU 1hr chart

With the GBP/USD having the wild reversal on the better CPI data yesterday I will remain open on direction due to the large move. The best levels I see for the short are 1.7149 or 1.7166. The best levels for the long are down at 1.7125 or 1.7100. At this point considering what was said by Carney and Janet Yellen yesterday my thoughts are the GU should weaken in the short term until more data comes out positive giving good reason to think Carney will actually raise rates. Otherwise the way I understand it the Fed seems to be slightly ahead of the BOE. The kicker would be getting more positive news from the UK in the near future. If that happens then the BOE moves into first place in the race to raise rates. Like any of them really can, but that’s another story.

GU 1hr chart

The EUR/JPY took a little bit of a beating on the Euro weakness yesterday showing they have no real plan for direction so I will be open here as well. With the levels tight on this pair the set up will need to show the trapping s clear with more than one pattern we look for along with a good entry. The best level for a short is up at 138.10 where it has the hourly 200 as confluence while 137.66 is best for the long at the lows. The levels in between are valid but weaker so a clear set up and great entry is what I will need to trade the middle levels while watching and managing it as an aggressive trade.

EJ 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The London session is quiet with news other than UK unemployment data. Expectations are for 27K to come off the unemployed list. A better figure will some what boost reason for Carney to raise rates but it would need to be big. Otherwise the bigger the disappointment the less chance even though the BOE don’t have an employment mandate.

The US has PPI figures and Industrial Production but as long as these don’t miss big they will wait for Janet Yellens testimony again today. I doubt it will be much different than yesterday but she just might slip during the Q&A time.

Happy trading


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