EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY July 30, 2014 Analysis
The EUR/USD did get the second push yesterday running down to test close to the 1.3400 level. There was also the clear set up just as the live London training session was ending but never came back for an entry to get me in the short. Today I will have the bias for the short again expecting the third push and a test of the next daily level at 1.3357 if it can manage to break down again today. The only issue that concerns me is the end of month flows starting a little early. I did expect some of that to happen yesterday as well but since it didn’t the probability has gone down with them showing enough conviction to make the push.
The best level I see for the short today is at 1.3420. However if they want to run stops above the New York/London overlap yesterday they will push to 1.3426.
The GBP/USD made a clean first push to the downside showing there is some USD strength coming in these days. Who really knows why at this point. There are plenty of reasons ranging from the taper continue all the way to the geopolitical issues getting to the markets like they should have quite some time ago. In a normal situation there is plenty of reason for USD strength but with the print fest along with the big boys chasing yield in stocks it shows that things are much different now than they were before the financial crisis. The good thing is nothing changes for us other than the darn tight daily ranges 😉
The best level for the short here today is up at 1.6962. The 16946 is valid but I would prefer to see them run it down during Asia and run the breakout traders or show the conviction below the lows during the London session. I will be open for the long but only if they show they wont let it pass the lows preferably with a clear stop run.If this pair can break down today it does have almost 100 pips to the next good daily support level.
The EUR/JPY was stuck in a tight range again yesterday bouncing around thanks to the USD/JPY. With no clear direction and the levels so tight on this pair, its best to trade from the extremes. The psych 137.00 seems to be holding it down while its still having higher highs even if it closed almost flat yesterday. The best level to short from today is up around 137.08 but the 137.03 is valid, just weaker. The best opportunity for the long is 136.76 but with several levels in close proximity the will need to show me something very clean to take a long today.
Forex News Today
The calendar is quiet during the London session again today. Early on the Euro could bounce around if the Spanish GDP surprises big but I have my doubts it will. Later just as the US forex opens there is the final German CPI data. However since the regional data trickles out all day long this shouldn’t do much as well. There is the slight chance that one of the major regions miss big which could make them move the Euro but inflation hasn’t been much of an issue lately for Germany.
The US has ADP Non Farm with the bar set low at 230K. This does make it more likely for a miss upward rather than down but the jobs market hasn’t been doing so well in the US. It just seems that they don’t look at it much anymore. If it does miss big then we will see a pop but seeing a sustained move is doubtful in my mind unless the news agrees with the already planned push short for the EU 😉
Later US GDP comes out as well with expectations at 3% on the yearly data but barring a big miss they will be waiting for Janet Yellen later in the day. In order for GDP to cause much action from the FED it will need to miss below 2% which is unlikely. I will be in bed for the interest rate and Yellen speech but they will make the push on what she says about the taper along with strengths or weakness in the US economy. If they do run the taper ahead of schedule effectively ending the purchases they USD will strengthen and we will get our pushes down.
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