EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY September 9, 2014 Analysis
The Euro has shown us that they don’t have much desire to push out weak holders that got in during the 200+ pip drop last week with the false push up on Friday. Now the probability for them to run to the next daily low at 1.2766 is much higher. There is a daily breakout level that could slow it down at 1.2874 but with it being in such close proximity I suspect they will give it a bounce there before they keep pushing it down during the week. Since they did come within 6 pips of it at yesterdays lows that may be all the bounce we get as well. Break out levels are never as strong as price turns. We always expect a reaction but the probability of a level holding has a much better chance if it has turned price and made more than just a bounce before.
I will be bias for the short today with the best level being 1.2921 considering where current price sits. The 1.2907 is valid but too close to current price unless they push it down during Asia to test and then come back to trap traders during the London session. I will be somewhat open for the long from 1.2874 since this is a first push scenario but after a false push upward, a first push downs probabilities for getting the second goes up substantially. They will need a very good reason to make the turn and reverse after a fake out.
The GBP just cant catch a break these days with the whole Scottish issue sort of blowing up in their face at the moment. It will be worth keeping track of going forward but with it being so close right now its only going to take mild swings in either direction to create these sort of moves on the GBP/USD. If the gap does widen in the favor of Scottish independence then its going to drop but if for some reason it just swings back to 51-49 in favor of the Union then these moves will be sucked back in a heartbeat. Trading the GBP will be risky in the near future but has the potential for some big profits as well. Just be careful trading this pair.
I will be bias for the short today since any effort to close the gap yesterday was beat down with selling. Having said that the best level is rather far away at 1.6161 just below the gap open. The 1.6109 is valid but still too close to current price to think they will push off from it. If it holds during the Asian session then it has more potential but I suspect they will push it higher before any move down. I should also say with these large moves there is always the potential for a pullback so I will be open for a long from the Asian lows if they show they wont let it pass but the daily support just below 1.6109 doesn’t look all that strong so if they push and have the daily close below 1.6065then the probability of them running to 1.5903 in coming days goes up substantially. Of course it will depend on the Scottish issue continuing to move in favor of the separatists.
The little bit of conviction from Friday proved to be false yesterday showing us a first push upward on the EUR/JPY with the UJ pushing the Yen weaker. Today I will be bias for the next push up to close some of the inefficient move from Friday but it does have some levels and both the hourly and four hours 200 EMAs to break so it may be rough going. The best level to take the long is down at 136.60 but if the UJ takes off it probably wont make it this morning and I will look for the backside entry during London today. I will be open for the short at yesterdays highs if they cant start a push during Asia but will need some convincing with a nice stop run and good entry while watching for any conviction.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts off with Manufacturing and Industrial Production from the UK. However at the same time BOE Governor Carney starts a speech so unless the news events miss big they will be waiting for what he has to say. I would think he has a good chance of mentioning the Scottish issue if hes taking questions but thats not a guarantee. Expectations for the data are flat so there is the chance for a surprise. Later is the UK NEISR GDP report as well but as long as it dont miss big they will be paying more attention to a Fed member speech.
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