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EUR/USD, GBP/USD February 14, 2014 Daily Analysis

Happy Valentines Day every one. I hope you have a great day with your significant other today. I also want to thank all of you who sent B-Day wishes. I couldn’t believe how bloated my Skype was this morning when I woke up. I was truly touched.

The move yesterday on the EUR/USD proved that the first push down we had Wednesday was false. By looking at the price ction alone I have a feeling they will be running the intraday pushes today and finish a third. I don’t like to assume they will run the intraday pushes but adding all the factors up it sure looks like they will do that today. The potential topping formation at the highs does concern me a little but as expected the 1.3682 daily level will take conviction to break and often we see they have to hammer away at significant daily levels to see them break. The best way for the trade to form up will be for the current highs to hold during Asia and then get a run down to 1.3658 with some clear manipulation for the push up. The other scenario I will consider for a long is the conviction move during London and the pullback to the Asian lows.

I am not totally discounting a short today because it is Friday and we may just see the end of week flows hold the range we have. What I will need to see in order to take the short is London hold the highs and show me with high probability that they wont let them break. It will take some clear trapping and a good entry while watching for any conviction for the push up.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD made a small extended push yesterday running up to test the monthly high at 1.6669 I discussed yesterday in the live training session. The probability of a reversal has gone up and the topping formation adds probability to that. With that said, again I am in a situation with a bias in opposite directions for these pairs. Without the EUR/GBP cooperating one of these will likely fail and considering its Friday the probability is it will be the Euro but as we know there are no guarantees in this market. As usual the best short will be a stop run to the highs on the GU but if they do hold the current tight Asian range I will be looking for the breakout traders getting played at the lows first, then the highs and short with manipulation there.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The highest impact news events during the London session are GDP figures from several European countries. The most important to watch are French and German releases for big deviations. If they drop below zero then they have potential to start a recession and will weigh on the Euro. otherwise I have my doubts that they have much probability of missing to the upside considering the data coming from Europe lately.

Later during the US session there is Michigan Consumer sentiment but this report has lost its ability to be high impact due to it being sold to the highest bidder well before the official release.

Have a great weekend


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