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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Forex Commentary December 12, 2012

The EUR/USD has seen the second push to the upside following the smart money trend. I am a little concerned that it needed the Asian session yesterday to complete the first push but we have the second that has made the 75 pip move after a short 4 hour accumulation period during the London session. Its not as pretty as I would like but its there so I will be looking for the third push today after the retrace/manipulation. The best place to see the manipulation will be at the hourly 200EMA which is at 1.2974 for a potential long entry. If it can get there during the Asian session we may see it run off during London with out any pullback, but I doubt that will happen. The support area during the US session at 1.2981 has potential to hold up any down move during the Asian session barring any tape bombs of course.

Depending on where price is at the end of the Asian session the levels to look for the long may change. If Asia does manage to end at the high of the Asian box then the lows of the Asian session come into play as a point to look for a false break entry long. If its at the lows then we will probably see the deeper level near the 200EMA or at least the US support level of 1.2980

Since we also have some fundamentals backing the up move today with the Fed Statement and Economic Projections late in the day there seems to be some pricing in of a boosting of the bond purchases and MBS. I have been seeing several articles expecting this. To be honest it really does not make much sense to me because the NFP figures were good and the Unemployment Rate dropped. If they do step up the QE yet again to me it would be an admission by default that the Jobs and Unemployment data are a joke…as we all know they are. If it were me I wouldn’t want to let that cat out of the bag, but that is just me. I will admit that the people I get my news from are better informed than I am so for the sake of argument I will accept that they are probably correct with this one. With the market pricing in such a move I also doubt the Fed will disappoint and watch the ensuing fall. We will see.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Dec. 12, 2012

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The GBP/USD also made its second push to the upside. It is a little short on pip count so we may see that finish and then get a pullback.

As I look at the price action during the London session I do see some trapping candle patterns that could have been the signal for an entry. However since they were occurring as a triangle was forming on the 15 minute chart and there wasn’t a support level any where close, I saw it as too risky for the entry. The fact is there were also patterns supporting the short so I didn’t take the trade based on conflicting price action. 

Since we should be expecting the third push today I will be mainly looking for the long on this pair but I will also be mindful of the daily chart highs as the price is rather close to the major level of 1.6125. Considering this we may see a deeper pullback before the third push commences. The best place to see the manipulation will be the break out level around the 1.6100 psychological level. Logic tells me that they will want to load up before a break of  this months high. Then again it may hold so I will be paying more attention to the Euro today.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Dec. 12, 2012

Forex News Today

We do have a couple scheduled news events today. However I expect they will be over shadowed by the ECOFIN Meetings from Europe and the FOMC releases from the Fed later in the day.

Greece said yesterday that they were close to getting the goal accomplished with the debt buy back so if this isn’t a bunch of crapola it will be seen as positive for now and create some risk appetite. There were also some statements from Spain saying they are closer to asking for the bail out. If that happens we will most likely see a test of the 1.3130 highs on the Euro in the near future.

Here Is Something Interesting

A member of ours sent me a link to this video the other day that I felt compelled to share with you all. I’m not going to say that I am the typical tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theorist. But I will say I am a realist and I totally agree that if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck then the darn thing is a duck no matter what somebody else says about it. 

I will also say I do find it hard to believe that there is or can be a world domination plan being executed by the elites of the world. Having said that I can also look at several failed attempts of world domination through out our history. The Persians did it, the Romans did it, the Spanish, British and French all did it. The Germans, Japanese and Italians did it. So to think that the powerful elite know better because all historical attempts have failed just doesn’t make sense because of the old adage “power corrupts and total power corrupts totally”. 

So what is different? The answer is either its false or they have learned the lesson that domination can not be done by means of war and military domination. All attempts at taking over the world using force has failed. So what are the possibilities? Watch this video and see for yourself as it is quite interesting and based on solid facts. Then take some of the advice on what we can do as individuals to stop it if it is happening and even if its all hogwash these actions will make the world a better place I think.

Here is the link to the site where you can watch it for free. Enjoy

Happy Trading


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