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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Forex Commentary July 18, 2012

You have to love it when a plan comes together. Yesterdays trading day was great all around. The Euro gave the entry short during the last minutes of the London session live room for a move of over 100 pips and then during the New York session Sterling got the long entry for the New York reversal and booked 40 pips on the way back up. Unfortunately I missed the short during London when my internet took a crap and once it came back about 30 minutes later the entry had triggered and it was moving off without me. I was glad to see that there were several members that got in and made some pips though. Great job guys.

Today we will be looking for the reversal. The Euro has made 3 intraday pushes to the upside and hovering around the highs from Tuesday so now I am looking to see that this topping formation holds. If it does then I will be wanting to see the stop run above these highs during the London session for the short. I will also be watching the price action during Asia for some trapping candle patterns to see if an aggressive entry will be warranted when the London session starts. There is a slight chance that the up move will continue so I wont be ruling out a long position but the price action will need to be rather clear for me to be considering it.

The GBP/USD is in a similar condition as the Euro with 3 intraday pushes to the upside and the third has not been able to break the recent highs. If I see some trapping candle patterns here and the topping formation holding then I will be looking for the short during London. The same slight possibility for the long exists here too so if I do see the manipulation happening at the hourly 200ema to the downside I will consider the long but as with the Euro it will have to be pretty clear.

Forex News Today

Scheduled news releases are fairly light today with nothing from the Euro Zone. From the UK we have the Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate and MPC Meeting Minutes. Traders will be looking at the MPC release to see about the potential for more asset purchases and if there is rhetoric that supports more then it will be GBP negative. My thoughts are they will be close to the last meeting minutes and there wont be much reaction unless there is a surprise of course.

Later the US has Building Permits and Housing Starts. I have my doubts these will have much impact since the way I see it the housing market in the US has not bottomed out yet but this is the data that will start to show improvement if it ever does bottom. If there is a surprise to the upside there will be some room for manipulation but this data needs to be consistently improving over several months to convince me we may have seen the bottom of the housing decline.

Bernanke is testifying again today also but I expect all the good stuff got out yesterday so unless he stumbles and says they are ready to print then we wont see much action. We will have to wait and see.

The Santelli Rant

As promised here is the video of Rick Santelli having a go at the Fed and Treasury on how inept they are and another on the regulators and just what is their function? You gotta like this guy. I would vote for him as President hahaha.

Happy Trading


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