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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Forex Commentary July 3, 2012

The EUR/USD has seemed to enter a choppy market. As I warned from the July 2nd commentary this news driven bull run may be short lived but I did expect it to go for just one day. It does still have potential for the third push today and not clear the highs but that is not what is the most clear. This occurs when the smart money is loading up for the turn rather than making the third push to new highs in this case. Normally I would still expect a stop run to clear out shorts above the previous highs around the 1.2665 level  but that may not happen. What is clear is that there are 3 intraday pushes down starting from the highs Friday which tells me they may be starting the reversal and we have the first push down with a failed 2nd push up. I will be keeping an open mind today with a slight bias for the short going with the move yesterday and starting the pushes to the downside. The first place I would like to see the manipulation will be the break out level at 1.2613 or the 4hr 200ema (black) sitting 10 pips above it. Otherwise any long position will have to be clear trapping at yesterdays lows.

The GBP/USD has a good possibility that it has seen its third push. The run from the lows to highs yesterday is under the 90 pip range that we like to see to consider it a good push but notice the topping formation that has formed and the rejection on the 1hr chart when there was an attempt to break the highs. This tells me the possibility for this concluding the 3rd push is higher. If i see a clear stop run above yesterdays high that is where I will be looking to short. We only need it to breech it by 10 pips to see the 90 and the 3rd push to be clearer. On top of that with expectations of additional asset purchases later this week the fundamentals agree with a weaker GBP.

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are light today with only the low impact PPI figures for the Euro zone which will be a non mover.

The UK has Construction PMI figures that are expected to drop for the previous release but still well above the 50 expansion. A surprise to the downside will give cause for some manipulation so thats what I will be looking for if I am not in a trade. At the same time is Net lending to Individuals which is a lower impact event but a big surprise there will cause some reaction but the PMI figures is what will be watched closer.

The US has  Factory Orders m/m and is expected to improve but I think the decoupling theory has been lost right now so unless there is a large surprise up showing factories have a good view of the near term future then this probably wont cause a stir.

Todays commentary is cut a bit short due to me getting a late start. Will be back to normal tomorrow.

Happy Trading


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