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EUR/USD, GBP/USD Grind Higher With Equities Oct. 21, 2014

Risk Appetite Back? Equities, Risk Currencies Move Higher

As stocks hold on to their gains of late it would seem as though risk appetite is back but this more than likely has more to do with the Fed coming to the rescue again. As Peter Schiff notes in the video below QE has been a dismal failure but they cant and wont admit it so of course they will do it again. They pretty much have to.

Its also been a long time since I posted a Rick Santelli video for you all to enjoy and thought it would be nice to see one where he doesnt lose his rag. 🙂

EUR/USD Analysis

Although the EUR/USD did move higher and close on on the days highs it still hasn’t pushed enough to give us a clue on direction. The four hour 200 is still holding it down rather well suggesting they don’t have the desire to push it higher than Thursdays highs last week.  We also have a nice 200 EMA sandwich brewing with the lows holding the hourly 200. These will be the safest entry points today although there are levels close by that they may turn at as well. The 1.2816 at yesterdays highs will be where I first start looking to short while cautious of a test of the four hour 200 just above or even potentially the test of Thursday/Fridays highs. The set up and entry will need to be as low risk as possible. The 1.2734 level is the safes long level but the 1.2756 is valid at the NY/London overlap lows. As with the short from lower levels I will need to see something very clear to consider a long at 1.2756 or I will wait for the test of 1.2734.

EU 1hr chart


GBP/USD Pushes Up

The GBP/USD has made its move showing they are more likely to push up today testing a lesser significant daily level at 1.6177 with a small pullback. Since we are dealing with a tight Asian range right now I do expect them to drop it a bit lower before I consider the Asian lows as a level to go long from. The exception to that would be a run to yesterdays highs and leaving the Asian box close to them. It would be best to see the playing of the breakout traders as well if the Asian range is tighter than 25 pips. Otherwise they could run it as low as 1.6127 or lower before a turn to break the highs. The next daily level they will likely test is up at 1.6225 so in order to run there and still get close to the ADR we have on this pair a deeper pullback will be necessary. Otherwise I will be open for the short at yesterdays highs with this being a first push but will need to see that they wont let it pass there to change my bias for the long.

GU pushes Up


The conviction on the EUR/JPY I discussed in yesterdays commentary did hold but ended up pushing off the gaps lows rather than the open while testing down to the hourly 200 EMA during the NY session. It did provide a nice set up so I hope many of you caught the 50+ pips they gave up on it. Today during London I will be looking to see if the Asian lows hold but would prefer to take a set up at the hourly 200 since it has the confluence of the 136.41 level. We don’t actually have any clue on direction and it does seem to be losing steam so I will also be open for the short if they test the psych 137.00 with a clear set up. However I will also be watching the hourly close to get out if they do want to break it up today. I will say I prefer the long from the lows but don’t have a bias on direction.

EUR/JPY 10-21-2014


Forex News Today

The calendar is rather bare again until the US session today. Existing Home Sales are expected to rise and as long as it does they probably wont move much on it. A large disappointment should weaken the USD. Otherwise a better than expected figure has the potential of bringing thoughts of the Fed holding off and risk aversion kick in.

Asian session traders have Aussie CPI to watch out for but should only create a sustained move on a larger miss.

Happy Trading



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