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EUR/USD, GBP/USD January 8th 2014 Analysis

The first option I saw as the higher probability for a move up, pricing in bad NFP figures on Friday didn’t happen yesterday. However they did go for option number two in yesterdays commentary, holding inside the range more or less not willing to stick their neck out to be the tall blade of grass that gets cut. It sure seems like we see an awful lot more of that these days. With the token taper and diminishing returns on the QEternity programs I can hardly blame them but what it does show is that we may be closer to the true correction than anybody thinks. Did I just type that?

I just had to slap myself straight because even though the real correction is what’s needed before the US or world can get back to a normal growth pattern, they will simply not let that happen. The reason which I did not consider when I was expecting they could or would do the right thing when the crisis started in 2008 was, even though these guys are much smarter than me or one would at least hope so by the difference in pay grade, they just cant do it thing because deflating the bubble created by Greenspan would cause the big D word Japan has been fighting for 20 years and now through unlimited debt and money printing just started to see inflation rather than deflation. This is unacceptable

The problem as they see it is them and all their buddies that got rich blowing the bubble up would all a sudden be back in the middle class or even lower. This will never do that intentionally. Therefore I, being a person who likes to do and see people doing the right thing, was naïve enough to forget the human nature part of the equation in that the boys on top will do anything including the totally wrong thing to stay on top. My bad for having faith these guys. Wont happen again. On to the charts.

The EUR/USD analysis for today has not changed but now we do have a stronger level at 1.3597 to potentially take the long from. It also loos as though the Asian session will test it and as long as it holds will add more to that. Otherwise the short from the hourly 200 ema is still valid also. Having said that trades taken from either level should be taken with clear set ups and good entries.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD is in the same position as the Euro today having already tested the daily lows from yesterday. If they do intend on making a break to the upside then I will expect this to hold during the Asian session and if it don’t then the probability of the break goes down substantially. The chance that they stay in the range is higher if the 1.6375 cant hold during London also. It sure looks like they are waiting for Non Farm at this point.

GU 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

The major releases start off with ADP Non Farm payrolls from the US late in the London session. Otherwise there is Unemployment data and Retail Sales figures from the EU wile Germany has Factory orders. As long as these don’t miss substantially I doubt there will be any sustained moves from them. Later in the day there is the Fed Meeting Minutes release also. This could also be what they are waiting for wanting to see what Janet said during the meeting. They will want to get an idea if she is going to do as expected and keep the print fest going or more importantly, if she will increase the size of the purchases if the US economy gets worse. Of which I am relatively sure it will and she will.

Latest From Max Keiser

Here is a little more from Max as we share the same views on the bubble they have inflated over the last decades and the effort they are putting into keeping it inflated. He discusses more of what is happening in the UK blasting Cammeran and Osbourne but the same thing is happening around the world as its been proven that the overwhelming majority of the money the US has been printing has been used to prop up insolvent European banks with branches on US soil. Enjoy.

Happy Trading


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