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EUR/USD, GBP/USD June 18, 2013 Analysis

Its not that often that I don’t have to move my lines from the previous days commentary to the next. Even if we are in a chop the levels usually change somewhat. That’s not the case with the EUR/USD today. price respected all three lines I had on the chart and they are all still valid. As expected the price action all day yesterday remained in the range due to the Fed coming up tomorrow. Until of course one of the Fed members tweeted something the market took as a “No Taper” coming up at the meeting. Im still a bit torn on the idea and think when Bernanke does open his mouth tomorrow there will be some wild swings in price as they digest what little changes to the last statement might mean. Trading tomorrow during the New York session will not be for those with a weak stomach.

Looking at price alone the most significant level at this time is the 1.3357 Asia is testing right now. If they wont let price get below there during the Asian session I will be willing to take a long with the right price action. preferably seeing the push up to widen the range and a stop run during the London session assuming it holds through Asia of course. If it does make the push down the next level is around 1.3330 but I will be cautious there with the daily level of 1.3318 just below. I do somewhat expect things to be slow again today but you never know since there is a decent chance that something get leaked and the big boys do their typical thing and load up before a push.

EUR/USD 1hr chart June 18, 2013

 The GBP/USD didn’t make the push up which doesn’t surprise me with the Fed coming up and the EUR/GBP gave the exact opposite for the help it needed to break and make the push so this pair is back into the third push chop awaiting Bernanke tomorrow also. The best levels to be looking for a trade will be the 1.5736 daily high since it was respected yesterday. yes it has the hourly conviction close above it but since price couldn’t close above on a daily perspective the level is still valid. Other wise the 1.5750 is also valid for a short but I would expect the daily level to hold if they intend a push down. There is only one place to look for the long at this point unless the Asian range widens substantially. I think its doubtful at this point but it could happen. the level is the 1.5688 but with the 80 psych level just below it could get there too so I will want a good set up and entry to take the long around 88.

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GBP/USD 1hr chart June 17, 2013

Forex News today

The Economic Calendar is a bit busier today with some decent events that may have an impact before the Fed meeting if they miss big enough. It starts off with a Mario Draghi speech. Im not sure if this will have much impact unless he does a Q&A session. He is speaking at the Bank Of Israel and I expect the Euro pump but how mush movement it creates is a different story unless it drags out with questions. Next or the Euro Zone is German and EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment both expected to rise so a disappointment would have more impact than as a potential surprise to the upside since it would likely be small.

The UK has CPI and PPI data today. the CPI will be the one to watch with expectations of a rise to 2.6. If it misses to the upside the probability of the BOE slowing asset purchases goes up but since they have been tolerating higher inflation its a toss up as to if they do that or not. My thoughts are not and keep the print fest running.

The US has CPI, Building Permits and Housing Starts. With CPI “official” figures so low it will tae a big surprise here to create any thoughts of tapering QEinfinity so the housing data has a better chance of moving the markets. if it can manage to be better than the improvement expected it will look as if there is an actual housing recovery and that may spur the “tapering” but I doubt it will last long with the Fed tomorrow. We will see.

Happy Trading


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1 Comment

  1. Terry
    Terry June 18, 21:40

    Amazing commentary each night, great insight

    Reply to this comment

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