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EUR/USD, GBP/USD March 11, 2013 Commenatry

Thanks to a much better than expected NFP Friday we have the full retracement of the Euro pump Draghi did Thursday so I will mainly be looking for the manipulation at key levels today. With supposedly every thing great for the US and the curtain still hiding what is going on in Europe, fundamental wise I do still have a bias for the downside longer term but that don’t mean we wont see a deeper pull back here today to try and close some of the inefficient move. Having said that with the last (NFP) move actually closing the Draghi move we may have seen the end of them for now anyway.

The trade I would prefer to see today will be the short from the NY session highs after London closed Friday of 1.3016. Some clear manipulation there will get me short. However I will also be open for a long from the weekly lows at 1.2954. I also want to mention the support level at 1.2965 that held price up both last week and the previous one. If there is clear signs they wont let that go I will be watching for the clear manipulation patterns there for the potential long but will want a really good entry because of the chance it could break this week. Maybe today but like I said I wont be counting on that and will let the big boys tell me what they are doing first.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on March 11, 2013

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The GBP/USD is somewhat more clear with the pushes having the clear push down after the fake out Thursday. I am having a hard time calling it a false push with the short run but at this point with the push down Friday its much clearer now. It also has the daily close below the 1.5000 level I discussed in Fridays commentary. With such a major psych level out of the way it has opened the door for the further pushes down to test the next significant daily level at 1.5847 and possibly run as low as 1.4250 in coming days and weeks. The daily level that does have the most potential to get a reversal from in the near future is at 1.4747 so if it can manage the break of 5847 I will be looking for the next  2 pushes down to reach there.

The levels I will be looking to short from today are the 1.4948 high during the NY session Friday and just above at the breakout level of 1.4966. Since there was an attempt at that breakout on Friday that just couldn’t reach it to show that its proven resistance they may want to try and push it there today to see if they can get some interest in buying there. Even though my bias is for the short I am open for a long but there will have to be some clear signs to kill the short bias for today. That will be something to the effect of an hourly stop run to Fridays lows that shows the clear manipulation on the 15 minute chart.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on March 11, 2013

Forex News Today

In short there is no significant news today to report. At this point it will be either tape bombs that create any volatility or we may just get lucky and see some sense of a normal market today. 🙂

Enjoy this Steve Leisman and Rick Santelli brawl

When I saw this video over the weekend I thought it would be good to share. Even though I agree more with Rick than I do Steve as far as what the Fed should be doing Steve does bring up a good point in reference to unemployment and even though these guys argue for entertainment purposes I think. When it comes to the figures they are really on the same page. the Unemployment data we get is skewed in such a way that they want us to look at the figures and miss the fine print.Which is the part time workers are at an all time high and the unemployed who have fallen off unemployment actually makes the unemployment rate as high as 11% when they are included. Are these people still unemployed even if they are not collecting unemployment checks? Of course they are and these people finding jobs is what will make a true recovery possible. Not hiding them and hoping we miss it so we all have the feel good confidence to go out and spend money.

I will also say I totally agree with Rick on the statement of “we would be much better off now if they did nothing” along with the fact of yes things would have been much worse for the first year or so but the US would be on a real road to recovery rather than the yellow brick road we are on. Enjoy

Happy trading


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