EUR/USD, GBP/USD March 11, 2014 Daily Analysis
With the EUR/USD holding a 37 pip range yesterday I will need to see some conviction beyond a significant level to get a bias on direction for this pair. In order to take the short I want to see the hourly close beyond 1.3851 then see the pullback to either 1.3867 or the Asian highs this morning. The potential long is a little more tricky since a close above yesterdays highs only means they are likely to test the overall highs at 1.3914 so conviction above that would be best. Otherwise I will consider the stop run to the Friday lows but will need to see they refuse to let it pass there and keep an eye out for the hourly close below. The GBP/USD had a nice push down yesterday so I will have a bias for the short today. As long as it can try and test the lows to widen the Asian range then the 1.6655 daily level has the most probability for the manipulation before they run it down. However if they do break above 1.6655 then they will do a deeper pullback to 1.6684 trying to push out some weak holders first. I am looking at this pair as more of a first push down scenario and will be open for the long with the stop run to the lows but prefer to be short and waiting for the break lower.
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Forex News Today
The calendar is light again today with the only significant news coming from the UK. It starts off with Industrial and Manufacturing production. Expectations are for flat figures on the more significant Mfg. data but if it or both surprise and go negative it will be GBP negative. Otherwise a miss to the upside the opposite and we will likely see the short squeeze if they do intend to push it down today. Lastly is the NEISR GBP figures later in the day. With the bar set rather low at .8% I think it has a slightly better chance of missing to the upside but more than likely close to expected.
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