EUR/USD, GBP/USD May 1, 2013 Analysis
The EUR/USD looks primed for the reversal today as the cleanest way to view it is a 3 push move over 5 days. What does have me a bit concerned is there is not a clear topping formation as of yet or any signs of exhaustion. The best way to be trading it today will be looking for a short at a stop run to yesterdays highs which will be my preferred trade with a bias for the reversal. However I will be keeping my mind open for the long if we get the manipulation push down before we see any stop run to the highs. The chances are any long will find some significant resistance ay the daily level of 1.3200 so if the reward is not enough to consider taking profit there I wont take the long. The best levels for a long are the 1.3146 support during the end of the US session but the better level is below that at 1.3116. If it can reach there before it does a stop run to the highs we may have a good 80-90 pip trade.
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The GBP/USD did as I expected in yesterdays commentary testing the 1.5469 level before making the next push to the upside. However I also want to mention for members that Sterling and I disagreed on direction yesterday. Although I was correct the fact remains that his argument for Mondays price action was valid but just wasn’t how I saw the market. Having said that what I am getting at is that assuming he was correct on the 3 pushes ending we have an extended push scenario on the GU and could still reverse. At this point it does fit in with the 3 pushes on the EU and I am much more comfortable expecting a third push in a scenario like this if we have seen the false push down. Since we don’t have that I will not be treating this as a second push only expecting the long today. I will admit considering the FOMC is today the long has a good chance but where to enter is the question of the day.
Therefore the levels I will consider a long from are 1.5511 and around the lows of 1.5474. Otherwise I will consider the short with a stop run to yesterdays highs of 1.5567
Forex News Today
We do have some pretty big news events today starting with UK Manufacturing PMI figures expected to slightly improve but in order to get a good reaction it would need to surprise above 50 or at least very close.
The US also has Mfg. PMI figures but with ADP nonfarm 15 minutes later its probably wont do much without a major surprise. ADP is expected at 150K which is no all that great so in order to be USD positive I thing the surprise up would need to be larger and a smaller miss down would get a more USD negative reaction. The ISM MFG. Index is expected to drop slightly but as long as it remains above 50 there shouldn’t be much reaction with good old Ben Bernanke FOMC Statement a few hours later. As usual the big boys will be looking to see if more printing is on tap and more than likely have had the report for a day or so already. Be careful if you are in a trade at that time of day.
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