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EUR/USD, GBP/USD May 7th 2014 Daily Analysis

Todays commentary is going to be short and sweet due to an issue I have with my left hand getting tangled up in the dogs mouth last night. I will be visiting the doc as early as I can this morning but wanted to get this done first or it may be too late before I get back later this afternoon.

The EUR/USD has a nice clean first push up so I will have the bias for the long if I make it back for trading hours today. The best level I see is the daily 1.3905 considering its proximity to  current price but if they want to flush out weak holders they will close the inefficient move and go to 1.3888. Otherwise the 1.3919 is valid but I would rather they either test the highs during the Asian session and/or play the breakout traders, then move down to take stops below there. I will be open for the short with the stop run to the highs but as usual watch for conviction and get a good entry.

On a side note for those that didn’t get to Sterlings live training session, I did close the EUR/JPY short I took in the London room for 50 pips since I was awake tending my hand late last night. It missed my take profit set just above the average daily range by just a couple pips, London was about to close and I didn’t want to risk a pullback during NY at the end of the day. Of course it eventually hit but it was still a nice 2-1 trade. I could have not gotten a better entry than 142.02 and the trade never went against me 🙂

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD made a nice 130 pip run yesterday for an extended push testing just below the 1.7000. I will be treating this as a first push also but with the extended move they may want to push out some weak holders before they move it up again. With it getting close to testing the 2009 yearly highs of 1.7042 it will take some good conviction to break that and keep it running up. Therefore I will be a little more open for the short from yesterdays highs just looking for a deeper retracement before the break. If I do get short I will only look to get  2-1 trade as the potential of them having enough conviction to push above the highs with no pullback is there also.

Since the move up toward the end of the push was rather efficient the most likely pullback is where it had lost some of that down by 1.6946 if they want to try and induce some shorts today before running it up. Otherwise they could push as low as 1.6918 even though I have my doubts about that deep of pullback. The current Asian lows are valid as well but if we see a break down this morning with a decent widening of the Asian range then that will be a valid place for a trap too although a bit more risky so the set up would need to be clear and get a good entry. Any short from the stop run to the highs will be watched carefully and if they show conviction I will be closing and looking for the long.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The only significant release during the London session is German Factory Orders. It shows as medium impact but if it misses big it could get them pushing the Euro around. Mainly with the EUR/GBP I would think. The bar is set low with expectations of a drop so my thoughts are an upward surprise has a better chance. However the data in Europe hasn’t been impressive so a miss to the downside is still in the cards.

During the NY session Janet Yellen testifies to congress so that could be interesting. The big boys will be looking to see if the committee asks if she is prepared to print if things get worse. How she answers that question if they ask could run things wild for awhile.

Asian session traders tomorrow need to watch out for Aussie jobs data and Chinese Trade Balance figures. If exports drop significantly it will effect the AUD since the two economies are attached at the hip.

Happy Trading


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