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EUR/USD, GBP/USD November 6, 2013 Daily Analysis

We didn’t get the second push on the EUR/USD showing that there is no real conviction in the up move and has a higher probability of breaking down. Im not going to assume that and will be open for either direction but the daily close below Fridays lows gives a small hint they aren’t buying the Euro. the best levels to trade from will be the high or low of this range in either direction but I will be open for the short with some clear manipulation around the 1.3500 level. The lows from Friday are valid but with the close proximity to current price I wont take it too seriously unless we get a decent push down during the Asian or London session. I will be open for the long with a stop run to the lows but will want a good entry and see if they show conviction to the downside.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD had one heck of a push due to the services PMI data being much better than expected and they slammed the EUR/ GBP. There is some small daily resistance it will need to break for the third push but I will have the bias for the next push up today. I expect that if they don’t want to push and break those highs then there will be s deeper pullback before they make the move. As I type this up they have just pushed to test them during the Asian session along with the Euro moving up. this tells me they have a better chance of breaking to the upside on USD weakness during London but we will have to wait and see. I expect now that they will pull it back to around 1.6033 before they finish the third push up. Otherwise if we get some conviction above 1.6076 during London then the 1.6063 level is valid for the pullback before they push.

Update: If they make the move to 1.6104 it will be a large enough move for the third push and will consider a short with a stop run to the high of the day.

GU 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

We only have medium impact events scheduled today with UK Industrial Production, Euro Zone Retail sales and German Factory orders. I really don’t expect much from these unless there is a large miss so will be watching for that. Otherwise in the US session there is the NIESR GDP figures for the UK. The same goes for this in that we wont see much without a large miss.

Happy trading


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