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EUR/USD, GBP/USD September 23rd 2013 Analysis

The EUR/USD started off the week with a 20+ pip gap thanks to the German elections but from what I see the fat lady hasn’t sung yet so we will know more later. My thoughts are that Merkel will get her majority and all will be good but you never know until the votes are counted.

The price action Friday again shows no clear direction after the move up thanks to Ben and company. However the potential fake out to the lows Thursday does give a hint they will be making the next push to the upside but that’s not enough to give me a bias. If it can manage the hourly close above Fridays highs during London I will be looking for the long but will prefer to see them test the Asia lows for an entry. Otherwise I will be open for the short at Fridays highs with a clear stop run but will be cautious with the two levels just above at 1.3555 and 1.3567.

EU 1hr chart 9-23-2013

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The GBP/USD had a half hearted push down Friday to pretty much close the inefficient move created by Bernanke. I also see we have three intraday pushes for around 80 pips each and even though they are shy of what I like for a clean move and reversal at this point. They are enough to keep me from forming a bias for the short and keep an open mind for the reversal. It seems as though right now we are getting the test of the resistance created Friday during the end of the NY session so if we see the hourly close above that during London I will look for the long from the Asian lows around 1.6000 . The only way I will be looking to short is if this level holds during Asia and we see the stop run to the highs today. It sure looks like they will be running north at this point but I need more to be convinced.

GU 1hr chart 9-23-2013

Forex News Today

The calendar stats off with French, German and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI figures all expected to rise slightly. Of course the German numbers are most important but as long as there are no big disappointments then I doubt there will be much reaction. Unless of course there is a big miss to the upside. Later there is a Super Mario speech and he has not been consistent with the pump or dump these days so its hard to call. We do know that the strong Euro will hurt European exports so the chance for the dump is higher the way I see it but if the PMI data is better than expected an considering the US debt ceiling rapidly approaching any dumping efforts may just be soaked up and we see the Euro rise anyway.

The US has a couple of Fed members speaking and I assume they will be backing Bernanke in the QEternity from last week with the possible exception of Fisher who may not be as much on board but he has been overridden so much I doubt his hawkishness will be taken to heart. Providing he is still as hawkish as he was in previous speeches.

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