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EUR/USD Starting To Break Lower Range? FX Analysis 4/13/2016

EUR/USD Starts To Break Lower Range

The EUR/USD has been in a long term range for the last week and a half and we are finally giving some glimmer of hope that the range is breaking. Today we had a very strong stop run of the upper manipulation point and that was followed by a first push to the downside. Therefore, tomorrow I will be looking for the second push to the downside. While the previous range lows are technically holding, you will notice over the last 3 days the range has not bee perfectly sideways. Over the last 3 days the lows have progressively been getting higher and higher thus giving us a tighter and tighter range. As such this move down break does break that tightening range. At this point I have one lower manipulation point from which I will be looking to see a stop run short for the second push down as seen on the chart below.

EUR/USD Chart - April 13th 2016

Pound Cycle Stalls

Yesterday we were looking for the second push to the upside. We started out with a very strong push up but then it was completely retraced. It didn’t look like we were going to come into one of our lower manipulation points but we finally got back to the first level during the NY Session. We then had a stop run of this lower level which produced a nice full take profit trade. Even though we did have a valid trade off of our first lower level from yesterday, the complete retrace of the first push up at the beginning of the day is enough for me to question the upward cycle. Therefore I will be open the directional bias up today and we will have one upper and one lower manipulation point as listed on the chart.

GBP/USD Chart - April 13th 2016

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Forex Market News For April 13th 2016

US Retail Sales & PPI 8:30 AM Eastern: Retail Sales alone has been a pretty substantial market mover. That in combination with PPI has a very high probability of a 15+ pip spike on the release. For this month Retail Sales is expected at .1% and PPI is expected at .3%

-Sterling

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