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February 13, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

The EUR/USD did make its first push down yesterday so I will have the bias for the short today. I will still be keeping an open mind for a long if they show this is probably a false push but  will need to see the clear stop run to the lows in order to change the bias for the short along with some of the typical tricks they pull on the breakout traders. If price does make it to the lows I prefer to already be short from some manipulation to the 1.3625. There also is the four hour 200 EMA that may stop it but it would be better to see the inefficient move yesterday close for good measure.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD made the third push I expected yesterday thanks to Carney and the Inflation report. With price moving 174 pips on the day and closing with no topping formation there is the chance that we get the extended push today without much of a reversal. I will have a small bias to get the reversal today but the way things look it may not start until it hits the daily level at 1.6641 which is also just short of a significant monthly high from January at 1.6667. What I will be looking for most today with this pair are the signs of the reversal at 1.6641 but if the entry is not clear I will wait for the pullback and consider a long for a break of the highs at yesterdays highs around the 1.6600 level or just below at 1.6570.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar starts off with the ECB Monthly Report. These haven’t been market movers lately and usually only have an impact if the report differs some what from what Draghi has said in the Press Conference so I doubt there will be much from it today.

Later during the US session there is Retail Sales data. Expectations are for figures close to flat. The issue I see is they are close enough to zero that if there is the larger surprise popping the core data below zero then the USD should weaken as it adds fuel to the tapering of the taper. This by its self will need a large miss to create a sustained move. We also have another Janet Yellen speech later in the day as she testifies to the Senate Banking Committee. The big boys will most likely be focused on that and how she deals with the questions. The opening speech is likely to be similar to what was said to the House but you can just about bet the questions will be different.

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