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February 27, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary

Not much has changed considering the price action yesterday on the EUR/USD. It did have a 90+ pip push to the upside but in the larger scope of things with the ADR up to 120 pips, the clearer picture in my view is that we should see the next push down still. Of course if we do see this chop remain throughout today that will change to a no bias situation. Yesterday good old helicopter Ben defended the QEternity policy more or less saying the benefits outweigh the risks. Personally I still think the jury is out on that one but time will tell.

 The levels I will be looking at today will be the 1.3073 area for a short. Since the Asian session has come pretty close to it already,  how price leaves the Asian box comes into factor again. We need there to be some room for the manipulation to push to there so price will need to leave the Asian box in the middle or closer to the lows. Otherwise the chance of price moving up to test yesterdays high at 1.3122 goes up.

I will be open for a long position against this push down with a stop run to yesterdays lows but it will need to be clear and have some manipulation candle patterns during the stop run. The reason is the psych level of 1.3000 is just below and has historically been a tough one to break. I would much rather have a long position as close to that level as possible.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Feb. 27, 2013

One could also argue that the GBP/USD has had a first push to the upside, however finding the resistance at a less significant breakout level and closing on the lows of the day tells me they may be more bearish than bullish on this pair. Therefore I will have a slight bias to the short today here also. Having said that the levels aren’t that great once we get past the 1.5154 area. The next level is 44 pips away at Mondays highs and if price can reach there it will most likely test yesterdays high at 1.5218. the only thing that may stop it is the 1.5200 psych level but there is no guarantee. As for any long position yesterdays low comes to mind first but with the close proximity of that to current price action the probability of them testing lower first is high. So that brings it to the 1.5088 level. What concerns me about that is the lows Monday just behind at 1.5071 so any position on this pair today will need to be pretty clear and I will definitely be waiting for the best price possible to get my stop the most protection.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Feb. 27, 2013

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Forex News Today

Scheduled releases out of Euro land are slow until the Italian 10yr bond auction later in the day. This should be interesting considering the pounding they have taken since the election results came in. If this goes bad like I expect the chance of it spilling over into Spanish bonds goes up and we could see another Euro sell off. Having said that there is also a Super Mario Draghi speech late in the US session so if I am short the Euro I will be closing it before I go to bed to be safe.

The UK has its GDP figures coming out today expected to show more potential for a technical double dip recession. If it does disappoint then the thoughts of more asset purchases goes up and will be GBP negative

The US has Durable Goods data that should be a bit better than expected since the New Home sales figures yesterday were a pleasant surprise upwards. Some of this could already be priced in since traders know how they are correlated so if there is a disappointment the reaction should be bigger than if its a surprise upward. Later Bernanke testifies again but I expect the same defense of QEternity that he gave yesterday so this will most likely be a non event.

Happy Trading


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