February 3rd 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis
The EUR/USD made the next push down we expected Friday showing the conviction below significant daily levels. Therefor today I will have a bias for the third push looking to see it run down and test the 1.3429 daily level where the daily 200 EMA sits. The best level for the short is at 1.3509 but with that being in close proximity to current price they may push it as high as 1.3531 before they make the turn. I will only be considering a long if I miss the short and it runs down to 1.3429 and see that the wont let it pass there during the US session.
The GBP/USD made its second push Friday as well so I will be looking to see the third push on this pair also. The best level to see manipulation is close at 1.6444 so I will prefer to see the Asian box widen to the downside before testing to the upside during the London session. If it cant make the run down this morning then there is a better chance they push it higher to around 1.6464 before the push down. The last and most aggressive possible place to see the manipulation is at the four hour 200 EMA, however the trapping will need to be very clear and I will want to see the breakout traders hit to the lows first.
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Forex News Today
The only significant news events today are Manufacturing PMI figures from Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the Euro Zone. Of course the German figure is the only high impact news but a large miss in one or more of the others will give the big boys a reason to manipulate. Expectations are for mostly flat releases with the exception of Spain looking for an improvement.
The UK also has Manufacturing PMI data expected to drop a little but with it currently well beyond the 50 expansion level it will need a big surprise to create a sustained move. Otherwise I have my doubts that a miss to the upside will stop the moving to the USD as of yet.
The US has ISM Manufacturing PMI data later in the day. Expectations are for a small drop and would need a big miss to the downside to start the ball rolling for potential stopping of the taper.
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