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Fed Has Another “Pre-Mature Release” & Forex Analysis For August 20th 2015

Fed has yet another pre-mature data release of today’s meeting minutes. Seriously? How hard is it to release the news at the scheduled time. I know this isn’t the fed fault but I think it just illustrates the overall incompetence. More talk of a economy that is not growing and no rate hike in sight. Did anyone seriously think a rate hike was in the cards. If a rate hike does happen, what comes next will not be pretty. Either way yet another month of nothing substantial being said. The market obviously took the news as bearish for the dollar in the short term as both the Euro and Pound gained heavily after the release. Overall I look at no future rate hike as a good thing and would be surprised if the market didn’t see it that way as well. On to today’s Fx commentary.

Euro Gains Heavily After FOMC Meeting

Between the Euro and the Pound the Euro was definitely the biggest recipient when it comes to the FOMC meeting. Overall the EUR/USD has gained well over 100 pips since the release while the Pound remains within yesterday’s range. As far as trade setups, the Euro did produce a beautiful stop run of the lows but I was looking for a slightly deeper level. For those working off the Asian lows they were rewarded with a full take profit trade.

Normally I would call a move like today’s move the first push to the upside. With that being said when the first push is created by news I do not trade the market directionally the following day. Therefore today will be another day where I remain open on direction and will like always look to any valid trade setups that occur from the pre-selected levels.

EUR/USD Chart - August 20th 2015

GBP/USD Remains Trapped In Range

I was rather disappointed with the Pound today. In yesterday forex commentary I talked about how much I liked the levels on the Pound. Overall the Pound had a great upper and lower level. I think this trade really got screwed up with the 8:30 news. The volatility around the news did create a valid confirmation long from the lower level which I took. We then made a slightly deeper pullback which was enough to stop any long out before finally moving up.

Today the GBP/USD is almost identical to what we had yesterday. The only thing that is adjusted is the lower level. The lower level has been adjusted to the previous days low. Overall I really like the manipulation points today as well and will be happy with a setup from any of the pre-selected manipulation points. Unlike the Euro, the Pound does have some news coming out later today and therefore any Pound trades will be effected by that.

GBP/USD Chart - August 20th 2015

Forex News For August 20th 2015

UK Retail Sales M/M 4:30 AM Eastern: Last month was .6 worse than forecast and not only did we have a sizeable spike but we also had a very strong follow through for the next few hours. This month .4 is the expected number and anything over a .6 deviation from the expected number will create a very sizeable spike and consistent follow through.


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