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First Push Down In GBP/USD? October 14th 2015 Forex Commentary

EUR/USD Stays In Tight Range

While the Pound took a dive during the European session the Euro managed to maintain near the highs and continues in a tight range since the start of the week. I still have a slightly stronger bias towards continued downside in the Euro but bias means nothing without a valid setup to get short. I think the Euro is really nearing a decision point and the next few weeks will be rather important for longer term direction. At this point I’m keeping directional bias open and will continue to take any setup that occurs from any of the pre-selected manipulation points.

EUR/USD Chart - October 14th 2015

Pound Gives First Push Down

The Pound satisfied all the criteria of the forex bank trading strategy and mechanically gave a nice trade setup short prior to the economic data. The only issue with this setup was the time before the news. Based on our trade management criteria, if we have news that is capable of spiking the market more than 15 pips I don’t like to take setups that occur within an hour and half of the news. If I really like the level I will take setups approaching an hour prior to the news. This setup occurred about 30 minutes prior to the news and I probably would have not taken it because of that had I been trading the London session. 

GBP/USD Chart - October 14th 2015

Forex News For October 14th 2015

Average Hourly Earning & Claimant Count Change 4:30 AM Eastern: Both of these two numbers are very important and have been capable of individually moving the market. Remember a positive number is bad and a negative number is good as it is the number of people who are claiming benefits over the previous month. This month -2.3K is the expected number. For Average Hourly Earnings 3.1% is the expected number. I think Claimant Count Change continues to be very important. If you look at the chart of this release you can see it has been sliding back towards growing unemployment which is a bad sign obviously. A big miss could be hugely negative for the Pound.

Claimant Count Change - October Chart

US PPI & Retail Sales 8:30 AM Eastern: Neither of these reports is a huge market mover individually but they are capable of spiking the market 15 pips or more and therefore I would not carry a trade going into it. PPI is expected at -.2%. Retail sales is expected at .2 and Core Retail Sales at -.1%.


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