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Forex commentary EUR/USD February 6, 2012

With Fridays Non Farm payroll numbers in the past its back to trading as usual . However there are many questions to be answered considering the much better than expected numbers. The fact is the Bureau of Labor Statistics did change the way they figure the NFP numbers by using census data they accumulated in 2010. Adjusted for population growth over the last 2 years etc. This change in the way its figured is supposed to make it “more accurate” but it does seem funny to me that this more accurate way of figuring comes in an election year and if its really more accurate why didnt they do this years ago? The boys over at Zero Hedge dont buy it and I admit I am skeptical. However even tho it sure seems like the governments of the world are acting in their own political interests I am not one who jumps in with the pack on the conspiracy theories. I like more information. Having said that I did read an article from Trim Tabs. They track the jobs numbers using tax data released weekly and the figures they came up with was a net loss of over 2 million jobs over the past 2 months. Yes that was millions. So who do you believe? I will leave that up to you.

Now on to Greece again. Yes again. The good news is Greece will soon be forgotten news since crunch time is at hand and it sure looks like disorderly default is the flavor of the month. We will soon find out and the market will more than likely focus on Portugal as the next card to fall. Now since the Troika has insisted that in order to get the next bail out the Greek politicians must ALL sign off on the austerity package to get the cash in March. Understandably since Greek elections are coming soon and if a new government is formed they dont want a change of heart on the deal made to get this bail out and then need a third  in a few short years. There are many politicians in the present government that have been against more austerity to get this done so this seems like a no brainer to me. Can we all say it together? Disorderly default. Lets not forget though. Miracles do happen LOL.

Now to the charts. The daily shows a nice gap this morning and what is surprising is it wasnt bigger than the 35 pips. Other than that it is heading toward support around 1.3080 with not much interest to the upside. I do expect some support to come in today but think it will continue the drop eventually.

Looking at the 15minute I see there is only the psyche level of 1.3100 and 20 or so pips before it reaches the daily support level. I am expecting some accumulation by the Smart Money in these areas before they make the false push up to take out stops and continue the run down. I have doubts they will close the gap but its possible since it is a good opportunity to suck gap traders in the market in the wrong direction. Remember there is also the small possibility for a “miracle” and risk will be on and the Euro will benefit.

Happy trading guys



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