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Forex Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD March 26, 2012

There is really not alot to comment on with the charts of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Both have made a false push to level 1 and retreated back to the level 3 price action to make a test of the highs. I do expect a rejection and push lower and as I type this the hourly chart of the Euro has seen a topping formation which is a good sign. In order to trade this during London I will be looking for the typical stop run reversal and trap move to short today but Im not holding my breath. There were plenty of market rumors last week that there are significant stops above the 1.3300 level and I would think they are a tempting lure to get.

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The GBP/USD is pretty much in the same boat but does have a little clearer topping formation. Trading either of these pairs I will be happiest shorting from the highs of the day with any of the signals that the Smart Money plans to as least hold this consolidation or make a break to the downside. It sure looks like the stop run has already occured  here with the hourly pin on Friday so this would be my preferred pair to trade today but want to get a nice entry.

The news today is extremely light with German IFO Business Climate of which for some reason is expected to get slightly better. This makes me wonder if these guys were out to lunch last week when every Flash PMI from France, Germany and EZ as a whole disappointed. Then there is  some Bernanke speak later in the US session and US pending Home Sales which is expected to drop. Maybe its just me but shouldnt that be rising if the housing market is in recovery? Maybe I missed something LOL

In my reading over the weekend I did find a couple articles that were note worth along with a funny video I thought was worth sharing.

First was an article that annotated a letter by I believe the Dallas Fed Fisher where he was stating that the “Too big to Fail” banks really should be broken up if this so called recovery is ever going to gain speed. He is one of two Fed Officials that has said something to that tune lately and I tried to find the article to get you some key parts of his letter but the article has mysteriously disappeared from Zero Hedge. Go figure. I was sort of happy to see more than one of these guys have the guts to say such things but as I started reading some of the comments that joy was pretty much squashed when a reader notes that these guys do and say such things (just like politicians) to get the spotlight off them for the moment and once the light moves on its back to business as usual. As much as I would like to believe he meant what he said in the letter. We all know words are cheap and we will have to wait and see if they are backed by any action. I have my doubts but I do have hope.

Next was a video interview that Chris Martenson did with well known Wall Street author Gretchen Morgenson in which they too address the “Too Big to Fails ” and how they have a different set of rules than the rest of us since they have the politicians  by the short hairs and none of then have the nerve to stand up to these guys. The reality is the Goldman Alumni are peppered throughout the government which will make any real efforts to break these guys up much harder. Here is the video its well worth the 20 minutes.

Lastly was this funny one on the thoughts of a true Greek and how they set this crisis up all along to snare Germany. We all know that Greece wasnt the beginning of this mess but it sure does sound similar to how many feel that China is doing to the US. Of course different stories but using financials and markets to weaken the enemy rather than guns. Its a funny video but I should warn you there are some expletives so you may not want your kids around. Enjoy.

Warning: Some “Adult” Language 

I hope every one had a great weekend

Happy trading


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