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Forex Daily Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD June 15, 2012

Today my commentary is to be a bit different as I am taking the day off and I suggest you do the same. The EUR/USD has been in a volatile state and I expect it to do the same today. The fact is the Greek election is on Sunday and as noted in my June 14 forex commentary the rumor mill is running rampant. Just look at the chop shop that occurred on the EUR/USD.

There are also rumors of the BOE doing something, a coordinated Central Bank intervention among a ton of others. The thing is just as the article that mentioned pointed out was the fact that Central Banks NEVER show their hand before an intervention they want the market to be surprised to get the maximum effect for their money.

So what I will do today is go over the trades that set up right at the end of the London live room starting with the Euro. Notice on the chart below in the circled area. This is where a few members took the long position on the stop run outside the Asian range and several pins to the 200ema. Personally I missed it as I was waiting for the last test of the 200ema that never came. Those who had the nerve to hold on thru the chop had the possibility for an 80+ pip trade if they let it run to the 90 pip range tool and got a good entry. Those that took this trade please leave a comment below stating how many pips you gained. Personally I believe with my trade management I would have been out at break even or small gain.

The GBP/USD had an even nicer set up. This pair I did set a pending long that missed the entry. Some members took this also however the clarity of the 3 short term pushes was not so great and I thought there was the possibility for a stop run further so I wanted a safer entry and it missed by just a few pips. The fact is that the candle pattern on the first side of the double bottom was not a clear trapping pattern and the second side is what made it much clearer after the set of reversal legs closed. Once it did it showed the potential trap and I set the pending long at 1.5478 and price got as low as 1.5479 so it missed me by a pip plus my spread.

For those of you that insist on trading today the EUR/USD has made a 2nd push to the upside and if the volatility wasnt expected today I would be looking for the third. Watch out for a deeper pullback if you take a long and it would be best to take profits at the highs at the gap up on Monday.

The GBP/USD should be looked at with an open mind and look for confluence either at yesterdays highs for a short or the hourly 200ema for a long.

Forex News Today

There is not much to cover in the news as I expect the rumor mill to be driving price again today. There is a Mario Draghi speech just before London open so watch out for that. Otherwise later from the US there is Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Industrial Production and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. Most of these are expected to drop with the exception of the TIC Purchases that if come out in line will show that there has been more foreign flows to the US in terms of stocks and treasuries. Meaning in my mind that there is more of a flight to safety rather than actual thoughts of the US being a good investment.

Have a great weekend


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  1. DannyH
    DannyH June 15, 06:55

    Hi Chad, I took 57 pips on the euro long yesterday mainly due to the fact that I went out at lunch and therefore did not move my stop to b/e, I did also add to my long as it tested through and rejected the 50ema, I took a further 58 pips on this position.

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  2. Shannon
    Shannon June 16, 01:16

    I narrowly avoided breakeven by a pip, and got out for 2 1/2:1 on the euro trade.

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