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Forex Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary June 21, 2012

As expected we got the EUR/USD chop around the Fed decision yesterday. While the long term pushes show we are still back in the 3rd push chop There are 3 intraday pushes from the lows on Monday for a run of around 185 pips if I include the push yesterday from the news. Even though I dont like counting pin bars during news events price still seems to be holding the topping formation from Monday also while also finding some support off that 4hr 200ema also. Today I will have a small bias to the downside but will be keeping an open mind for a manipulation trap lower for a long but would prefer the trap to be to the upside to short from at yesterdays high before the spike up or Tuesdays high.

The GBP/USD is somewhat clearer and has 3 long term pushes to the upside. However in order to count the 3rd push I have to include the first spike down during the London session yesterday to have it include a 90+ pip run of which I dont like. The thing is news spikes are emotional moves that the Smart Money will often take advantage of and use to manipulate traders so I dont like using the large ones in the long term pushes. having said that we are seeing a topping formation forming so its a possibility that this is as far of an up move that we will see. Therefore my bias is a little stronger for the move down today on this pair than it is for the Euro. Most likely if one goes it will drag the other with it also.

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases start with Services and Manufacturing data from France, Germany and the Euro Zone. I have my doubts any of these will be market movers with the exception of the German Services numbers. This is the only one that hasnt shown contraction so far and if it does surprise and drop below the 50 level then yet again there will be more signs of the downturn in Europe affecting Germany and once they start getting hit and feel the pain there may be a change of heart considering the ECB but in reality it is unlikely. It would seem to me that things will have to get much worse in Germany to have a change of heart on the austerity measures they have imposed on the rest of Europe.

The UK has Retail Sales,  CBI Industrial Order Expectations and a 10yr bond auction. The Retail Sales may be a chance for the Smart Money to manipulate but will only happen with a surprise. The expectations are for a slight rise of 1.1%. Otherwise I doubt there will be much movement due to the other releases.

The US has weekly Unemployment Claims,  Flash Manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales. I dont expect much for surprises from any of these either. There has been no signs of housing data improving nor manufacturing. The Unemployment figures could surprise but would be more likely be a negative move than positive.

Goldman was wrong….. Again

So the Fed does not do an open QE and all Goldmans clients (muppets) who took their advice and went long due to them being convinced the Fed would print just got a little Corzined. Enough said.

Nigel Farage

Today I leave you with a video clip of Nigel Farage having a go at European Commission President Barroso and discussing the big changes going on in Europe these days. You got to like this guy. He tells it like it is and does not pull punches. If anything he is a little over the top sometimes but seems to have reason to be. Enjoy

Happy Trading


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