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Forex Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary October 15, 2012

Yee Haww! I have my internet back. Three days with no connection was driving me nuts to put it lightly. The backup is still on order and although we have put the most pressure on them as possible, here in the Philippines they run at a snails pace to get things done. One of the trade offs to living in the Asian tropics. Oh well it will get here eventually šŸ™‚

As I look at my 1 hour chart of the Euro this morning I see a feeble attempt at a second push on Friday with the full retracement of the move during the US session. Also notice that price was rejected at the highs from October 9th. At this point I am more inclined to think that this was a false push butĀ I’mĀ not going to assumeĀ that’sĀ the case and will be keeping an open mind. Its not all that often we see the false push on the 2nd move but it does happen. Its the price action that matters most so for today my bias is to the short but not so strong that it eliminates theĀ possibilityĀ for the long. What I will be looking for is price to test the hourly 200ema first, find support there and if I see the trap move around the break out level of 1.2960 I will take the short. Otherwise we could see a test of the highs before we see the trap before it has the momentum to break the 200ema to the downside.

The best situation I see for the long is the Asian session finds support here around the US session lows from Friday then London does the test into the hourly 200 or Fridays lows with a clear trap move and a long position has a very good chance for success. If I do manage to catch the long then I will surely be taking profit at Fridays highs of 1.2990. That would be a good 50+ pips and the chance of breaking that on a Monday is low without some tape bomb news to push it. I won’t rule that out though since tape bombs are the order of the day now. šŸ™‚

EUR/USD 1 hour chart Oct 15, 2012

The GBP/USD is a little more tricky looking today. The clarity of the pushes shows 2 up and we should be expecting the third today. On the hourly chart there is still a ways to go before we reach a significant resistance level so my bias is for the long on this par today. If we do see the third push here then the chances are it will drag the Euro with it so I will be keeping an eye out for that. The wild card here is the EUR/GBP. Its not that often we see the EUR/USD and GBP/USD run in different directions but when the EUR/GBP gets on a tear then we will see that happen. As I type this it is coming up on a break out support level at 1.6052 and showing Ā that its probably going to get there. Depending on how price acts there. this will be the area for a potential long during the London session. If we do see the one hour close below that level it will increase the odds for the short. What I will be looking for is this to hold and make the push up during Asia then test it with a trap move during the London session for a long. If we see the hourly close below and push up during London then a short is possible with a clear trap at the hourly 200ema at 1.6071 or even more probable at the 1.6080 level since the GBP likes the 80 and 20 levels so much šŸ™‚

1 Hour GBP/USD chart Oct. 15, 2012

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are nonĀ existentĀ for the London session but I would expect some tape bombs with the meetings going on over the weekend. The way I see it is there should be some damage control coming out since it would seem that they have done the same all talk no real actions that will help at any time in the near future.

The US does have a few high impact releases starting with the Retail Sales andĀ Empire State Manufacturing Index releases at the same time. I dont expect much deviation from either of these but the big surprise in manufacturing last month could produce another again.


As I was doing research for this forex commentary both the Euro and cable have made significant breaks to the downside which gives me more bias for the short today. There is still 10 minutes left before the hourly candle closes but looks to be rather bearish. Now I expect a pullback to Fridays lows of 1.2921 for the short on the Euro and for the Cable the Thursday highs of 1.6052 or a possible short run to the 4hr 200ema at 1.6040. It will depend on the price action if they get there.

Today I leave you with a couple interesting and somewhat entertaining videos that I found over the weekend. One is with Ron Paul describing how the US 2 party political system is really just one party since we can just about guarantee that there will be no change to the crony catering to the banks with either party in office.

I have argued the same thing with friends who think Romney is better than Obama and vice versa. It really dont matter. They will all talk the same BS to get elected then make deals behind closed doors that benefit them and their friends the most while they take away from the common man on the street. Its been that way since Kennedy wasĀ assassinated and wont change until the people demand it. Dont get me started. šŸ™‚

The next is a animation of the bears I posted videos from before who always have a common sense approach to what actually is going on. Enjoy

Happy Trading


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  1. jade
    jade October 15, 22:46

    LOVE THE VIDEOS….best daily commentary on the web! wish I would have found U guys a long time ago!!!

    Reply to this comment
  2. Robin H
    Robin H October 16, 00:10

    Chad, your commentary is great, super review of the market. I just love the Bears video, that’s just way too funny and yet so correct. Love the Temporary, Temporary, Temporary…

    Reply to this comment
    • Chad
      Chad October 16, 00:27

      Thanks Robin,
      I do try to not only make the commentary useful and educational but also entertaining as well. It is too bad though that most of the entertaining stuff has such a truthful ring to it. Glad you like it though buddy thanks again.

      Reply to this comment
  3. Chinmay
    Chinmay October 16, 02:06

    The bears videos are really entertaining and truthful, I am not a member of this program but I plan on becoming one soon as I have blown my first account in forex šŸ™ The eduction provided on this site looks useful but Chad I had a quick question for you guys here about the daily live trading rooms. How often do you guys execute trades? Do you guys force a trade or a few trades everyday even without an ideal situation or do you guys on average only trade when you see a stop run? I feel the main reason I blew my account is caz I trade when its just not there in an attempt to “get rich quick” which seems to be my downfall, I just wanted to know on average how many trades you guys point out in the live rooms before I sign up.

    Reply to this comment
    • Chad
      Chad October 16, 02:50

      Hi Chinmay,
      We are always sorry to hear about someone blowing their account but I would be lying if I said I didnt do that myself a few times. Hopefully you are a quicker learner than I was šŸ™‚

      The answer to your question about the rooms is an emphatic no. We never push trades and would never want to encourage members to do it either. I have had several members say that I am very strict on entries and I would agree. I totally believe that its best to wait for the market to come to you. During the rooms we do have some more aggressive members that will take entries on good trades that I miss personally but I am following my rules. At the end of the day its not about the wins or losses but following your plan and being happy win or lose that creates the successful trader.

      As for room trades we have been getting maybe one a week lately and thats not a guarantee. Often times my entry occurs after the room is closed or I dont get a trade at all during London. Those are the times that I will trade the US session.

      I would have to say its about the same for Ster in the US session also and he dont trade London

      Hope this helps

      Reply to this comment

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