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Forex EUR/USD commentary January 25, 2012

It would seem that all it takes to show the EZ is out of recession is some good PMI data. Nice right? At least the purchasing managers feel a little better about the whole situation. I still have my doubts but the charts dont lie. Well they do but you would never know it unless you understand how the markets are manipulated.

Of course we had the same conflicting news on the Greek debt deal. The Euro pumpers saying the deal is close then sources within the negotiations saying that hedge funds are preparing to sue Greece and that anything less than a 4% coupon could not be considered voluntary. Not even considering the CAC laws Greece is proposing to force the hold outs to conform. Man I am sure getting tired of writing about Greece and I am sure you are just as tired of hearing it but I feel its important to keep up to date as this is a hinging factor that until solved will serve as a lynch pin that if pulled will cause a big mess to say the least. So lets get on to the news today.

There is not much news coming from the EZ today other than the German IFO business climate. Considering the PMI data was better than expected this should follow suit and at least be the rise they expect or better. This will of course put more fuel in the fire of a EZ recovery so I wont be surprised if the euro rises to the occasion and pushes up. We also have ECB president Draghi speaking at the beginning of the US session which should also give the Euro a pump as usual. All news points to a Euro rise today guys. Last but not least is the FOMC meeting and rate decision. This will be the first time for helicopter Ben to do his press conference so expect some volatility during that time.

Looking at the charts the daily has formed a rejection to the upside but found resistance at the 1.3050 level and did make a higher high signaling that the push up is more likely and we could be in for a run to the 1.3190 level once the push past 1.3080 is finished. We are seeing a small retrace during the Asian session but doesn’t look to have much momentum. I will be looking to the 15 minute chart to tell me there is intent to the upside before I go long.

Happy trading guys


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