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Forex EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis November 19, 2012

I never like it when the smart money decides they are going to do a reversal after 3 intra-day pushes. The fact still remains that the 2 weekly pushes I had marked in Fridays market outlook was the clearer set up. However that wasn’t the plan they had in mind. What made the weekly levels more clear was the first push being well short of the average daily range plus the second needing to use a pin caused by new to get within what we term as a clear push (around 90 pips). Needless to say I followed my plan and took a 20 pip hit.

I remember discussing with one of our members in the skype group that the chance for the NY reversal to be a continuation was high since we were getting the pullback a few hours before the NY open and sure enough it showed a nice set of trapping candle patterns at the 15 minute 200ema and pushed down nicely from there. Personally I left the market alone but I hope some members were able to capitalize on that 50+ pip move.

Today we have a first push to the downside but at this point it is looking more like a false push with the clear rejection/stop run of the 1.2700 level. The Euro is now breaking the NY highs from Friday and closing above them on the hourly chart. The clear sign for a further push up will be if we see the Friday highs/Sunday lows hold. If it does not hold and we do break down below those levels then the probability lies with this being a retracement before the second push down. I will be waiting to see what happens here during Asia to form a bias one way or another and keeping my options open for now.

 1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Nov.19, 2012

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The GBP/USD has gotten quite messy and is living up to its reputation as the drama queen. There is absolutely nothing clear about the price action to give us a bias one way or another. The course of action on this pair is to either leave it alone until some sign of a clear direction appears or trade the manipulation at key levels. The higher probability manipulation points are the daily levels I marked with at 1.5912 and 1.5824. If you would like to learn more about trading the manipulation you can read this training article that covers timing your forex trade entries.

1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Nov. 19, 2012

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are typically slow for most Monday’s and today is no exception. The only economic news release worth mentioning is during the London session, and it is a speech from Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann. As usual he is the lone dissenter for the ECB going on a print fest so his speeches are always interesting.

The US has Existing Home Sales later in the New York trading session but I don’t expect much from this without a large deviation.

Are We Getting Closer To Punishing Those Responsible?

This was an interesting piece put out over the weekend reporting the police strike in Spain where the officers were protesting the latest cuts the Spanish government had to make to secure the 100 billion Euro bail out. I think we may be getting closer but still have a long ways to go.

Yesterday, in what is an appetizer to the great 2013 convergence trade (that, between the now thoroughly dead Greek and the Spanish economy, which is rapidly getting there, of course), several thousand Spanish policemen took the streets of Madrid protesting the latest round of austerity, which included frozen pensions and the elimination of the Christmas bonus (they will have many more opportunities to protest not only the loss of any future upside, but the eventual cut of existing wages and entitlements). As RT reports, protesters blew whistles, shouted slogans, and carried anti-austerity banners as they marched through the city centre to the interior ministry. But perhaps the most telling message read on one of the slogans, was the following: “Citizens! Forgive us for not arresting those truly responsible for this crisis: bankers and politicians.”

What was even more telling was some of the comments posted after the article. The one that struck me was this “…and somewhere in high towers the global elites are chuckling at all this shouting and arm waving.   Historically speaking, this s#!t only ends when the guillotines get rolled out.  Until then all of this is just theater.”

I couldn’t agree more.

Happy Trading


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