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Forex EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Commentary April 20, 2012

We did have a good trading day yesterday with a nice short on the GBP/USD in the fx training room, booking 45 pips on the drop just before it retraced the whole move. For being the day of the Spanish bond auction I was happy to stay away from the EUR/USD. The auction didn’t go all that well but they did manage to keep yields below the high water line of 6% so I guess it could have been worse.

Today the EUR/USD is in the same predicament with about no clue on direction. Fundamental wise it should be pushing on down so I will stick with a light bias down and be looking for the manipulation to the upside  for the short today.

The GBP/USD is in the same situation as yesterday with a nicer topping formation and since the prospect that they will not add to the asset purchase facility has been priced in by now the reversal has a bit higher probability now. I will be paying more attention to this pair today as it is more clear. Looking for the trap move to the upside and short again today.

Forex News Today

The news releases for today in the Euro Zone are German PPI numbers that is expected to increase slightly from 0.4 to 0.5%. Any large surprise to the upside may have a significant impact on the Euro since Germany is kind of freaked out by inflation and they will put even more pressure on the ECB for an exit strategy for the LTRO when in reality the EZ is already in need of more cash infusion from the ECB. Then there is the German IFO Business Climate that is expected to drop slightly. This one has potential to surprise to the upside since previous consumer climate numbers did the same but with the rest of the EZ deteriorating it would make more sense for it to drop.

Other than those there is the G20 meetings and the IMF meetings starting today where I expect the typical Euro pumping, every thing is just fine and bizarro talk as usual so with that in mind dont be surprised if the market is choppy today. At least the EUR/USD anyway.

Happy Trading



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