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Forex EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY Commentary March 28, 2012

The EUR/USD and GBP/USD did make a small attempt to push up yesterday but seemed to be held up to some extent. We did have members who caught the short run up. However I missed those trades as I felt there would be another retest that never came. I did however manage to get a total of 66 pips on 2 positions I took in the EUR/JPY.

With the GBP/USD having tested and was rejected by a weekly high I somewhat expected a build up before it broke. Even though its possible we have seen level 2 on this pair. Its not that clear. This chop seen on the hourly chart tells me there has been effort to push traders out of the market as they take stops in both directions. Never the less the next level should be to the upside. The EUR/USD is a bit clearer and is most likely in consolidation after level 1.

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The Yen crosses are actually a little clearer and have shown us a  2nd level up and I will be expecting the 3rd today and will be watching for the stop run and trap before taking the long.  Today should be a good day on the Yen crosses as even the USD/JPY has made a break above its hourly 200EMA and is testing it from the topside during the Asian session. As long as this test holds the possibility for the up move on the crosses increases.

In the news today the Euro has what are marked as medium impact releases of German Prelim CPI and M3 money supply. These actually are more looked at these days since the interest rates in the EZ are more based on how Germany is doing with inflation and the M3 is related to interest rates also. Having said that if these do come out as expected then the markets shouldn’t have a large reaction but any deviation will be used by the Smart Money for manipulation so be aware of the time of these releases. The UK their Current Account numbers and Final GDP and should be treated the same. Lastly the US has Core Durable Goods and Durable Goods Orders. These releases are related to the housing market and with a vast improvement from last months results expected I have my doubts they will reach the expected numbers. In my mind with the revisions to the upside being as small as they are for last months releases it seems a bit more like wishful thinking than anything. We will see. There is also Crude oil inventories which is expected to rise by around 4 million barrels. For those who don know why this is important for the USD. When oil dealers expect the price of oil to rise they stock up at a lower price and inventories rise. The opposite when they expect the price to fall. Since the price of oil is negatively correlated to the USD (oil rises=USD fall) usually. This does fit in with our bias to the upside potential for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD as long as this release is as expected.

Sorry guys no good funny videos today. I was glad to hear from the members who enjoyed the last one. Its always nice to get a good laugh every once in awhile.

Happy Trading


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