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Forex Market Analysis EUR/USD, GBP/USD October 19, 2012

The EUR/USD has given us a clear first push down today. It is a bit shy of the 90 pip pushes we like to see but we do have a nice head and shoulders pattern which is consistent with the smart money doing the reversal. I have never been a fan of chart patterns but when they are as clear as this one I will pay attention. My bias will be short today with a possible chance for a long at yesterday’s lows. However in order for the long to have a good chance of success I will need to see the manipulation to the downside beyond the well established Asian lows . If we do eventually get an hourly candle to close below those lows during London then I will no longer consider a long entry as an option. The most likely place to see the manipulation for the short is at the red line of 1.3086. however with the pins that we see that have dropped below that level during yesterdays price action so the manipulation could happen anywhere in that area.

1 Hour Chart of the EUR/USD for October 19th 2012

The GBP/USD has also made the clear push to the downside with an inefficient move after London closed for the day. I have looked around to see if it was news driven and the only thing I could find was a statement from a BOE insider saying that the UK economy is still it trouble. This would incline many to believe there will be more asset purchases in the future and could be the reason behind the move. Looking at it from a pure price action based view I will say that if a pair has more potential for the long against the first push it will be the GBP/USD. If we can get the trap move to the lows then the chance of that inefficient move getting closed is good for about 75 pips at the break out lows of 1.6114. Otherwise the short has most potential from a trap move to the hourly 200EMA which is the 1.6100 psychological barrier as well.

1 Hour Chart of the GBP/USD for October 19th 2012

Forex News Today

As usual for a Friday scheduled releases are light. the Euro Zone has German PPI and the EU Current Account but I expect these to over shadowed by the second day of the Economic Summit and potential tape bombs. I do expect there to be nothing gained as usual but they will most likely do the typical Euro pump.

Later the US has Existing Home sales expected to drop a bit. Considering what happened with the housing data earlier this week this could be manipulated and surprise to the upside also. So be aware of that when the news comes out as it will be USD positive.

Happy Trading


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