Forex Market Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD September 24, 2012
Looking at Fridays choppy price action I am inclined to believe that we have a good chance of seeing more of this ahead. from what I have been reading over the weekend the volume in the markets picked up substantially so we will be seeing more volatility at the very least and do have a much better chance for the clear manipulation as market participants come back. When I look at my daily chart and see the rejection on the EUR/USD it does give me a slight bias to the downside but I will need some clear manipulation to trade with today. Right now we are seeing the 1hr 200ema providing support and I dont expect a break during the Asian session.
The first place I will be looking to short from will be the resistance shown during the end of the US session Friday around the psych level of 1.3000. Otherwise a clean 1 hour close below the 200ema will add to my short bias and at that point I will be looking for a trap at the test of the breakout level or a clear 1 hour pin bar into that level. From what I am seeing here this morning the higher probability will be the test to the upside before the move down. If for some reason we break that resistance the next obvious trade will be a short on a 1hr stop run to Fridays highs.
The GBP/USD is a different story all together. We were expecting a third push down Friday and instead got what looks to be a first push to the upside. At this point I am more inclined to think this is a false push up because of the way it closed on Friday along with the test of the highs at 1.6300 from back in April with a nice rejection candle on the daily chart. As I type this we are seeing some 1 hour closes below the key support levels showing conviction to the downside so a test up into this break out area during London will be a good place to look for the short. Otherwise there is a higher risk possible entry for a long at the break out area from last Thursday around 1.6200 but if I do take that entry I wont be holding for the longer push and taking profit at 40-50 pips.
Forex News Today
News releases are light being Monday. There is only German Ifo Business Climate for the Euro Zone so I will be keeping an eye out for any tape bombs to get the manipulation we are looking for and there is potential for plenty of those. With Greece being found out to be the big liar about their great reduction in their budget deficit last week. If we recall they said that the target for the year was 15 billion Euros and they said it will come in at 12 Billion. Great right? Yes sure but only until we find out from the Troika that has been crawling up their financial butt over the last week and found that its more like 20-25 billion. Crazy I tell you. More lies as we step deeper into the Twilight Zone.
I found an interesting video over the weekend that every American should see. its about our presidential debate system and how its rigged for the two main parties to control the outcome. The more I read and see these days I have to say its glaringly clear that if true democracy isnt already dead then it is in its final death throws and on its last breath. More later this week when I have time for a longer rant. Enjoy this video and be sure to pass it on to everyone you think will benefit.
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