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Forex Market Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD September 3, 2012

Finally here we are in September and the markets should be picking up some sense of normality. We do have the Labor Day holiday in the US so its likely we will see the move during the Asian or London session today. I should also point out that there is a Mario Draghi speech that is scheduled for late in the day so we may see some volitility during the thin US session.

Looking at the charts we do have what I consider a first push up on the EUR/USD and the higher probability is for the second. That being said I will still consider a short but I want to see an hourly close below the support at last Thursdays high of 1.2563 followed by a test of the Asian highs with a trap move. My first choice will be the long with a clear pattern at the  lows of the Friday US session of 1.2557 or the 15 minute 200ema just below that at 1.2547. If the market does run off south with out me then the next choice for the long position will be the hourly 200ema at 1.2507 but if this is the trade I get I wont be holding for the larger push. A move like that will shift the bias to neutral and will open the door for this push up more than likely being a stop run or false push. I also want to point out that the daily chart does look bearish. I can see a clear 3 pushes up from the lows and a topping formation with the Friday candle unable to close above the highs on August 23rd giving a little more evidence that this may be a false first push up. 

The GBP/USD has had a similar push to the upside and is now coming down to test the support level at Wednesdays highs from last week that held as resistance on Thursday and once broken is now proven support during the US session Friday. An hourly close below that level of 1.5853 will be a sign of a deeper pullback to come before the potential move up today. I will also be keeping in mind the potential for this being a false push to the upside if we do get that close below 1.5853. the key today will be the clarity of any trap moves at key levels.

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are light today with only Spanish and Italian Manufacturing PMI data coming up for the Euro Zone of which I dont expect anything from. Business as usual there. However there is a speech from SNB Chairman Jordan. I usually dont post much on Swiss franc data but this could have an effect on the EUR/USD if he announces anything big concerning the EUR/CHF so keep an eye on that.

The UK has its Manufacturing PMI data release also today. Around this time will be where we should be looking for the trap move as the GBP has a habit of giving clear set ups before  their bigger news events.

The US is off for Labor Day but the ECBs Draghi Speech is scheduled for 9:30am EST so be careful around that time.

Happy Trading


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