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Fx commentary EUR/USD February 1, 2012

Again the Eur/Usd commentary is started with Greece in the cross hairs. I know it seems to be beating a dead horse but we simply cant ignore what is going on since the abrupt changes are happening left and right. Yesterday the Greek PM called an emergency meeting with his cabinet. The Troika is standing firm that Greece impose the austerity measures promised for the last bail out. This was a quote from the Guardian.

“The troika doesn’t appear to be willing to accept any concessions whatsoever on reducing the minimum wage and scrapping bonuses,” said the government aide. “No political party is willing to move either, saying wage cuts are a red line they are simply not going to cross. You tell me how this is going to be resolved. We have no idea and we’re very worried.”

It would seem that the debt deal is not the only concern of which I cant say I blame the Troika at this point. Remember the addict analogy I made yesterday? No body want to be the one who simply enables Greece to do the same thing over and over again. The facts are they fudged numbers to get into the Euro and are now paying the price since they didnt use the benefits of being in the Euro to fix internal problems they had when they used the Drachma. The old saying of paybacks are a bi___  comes to mind.

There is not any major news events coming from the EZ today but ADP nonfarm will be released during the US session. The market will be looking to see some job creation that will show the US is actually not going back into recession. The number is expected at 189K which is a significant drop from last months 325K . Any significant surprise to the upside will most likely bring in some risk and the Euro may rise but with all the negativity out of the EZ these days a jump in employment may just bring back the decoupling theory and the Euro may drop. I will be standing aside until the reaction is settled and look for the set up. If I trade it at all.

The daily chart has made a bearish close but had some rejection at the lows and barley closed below the close from December 20th by less than a pip. It seems Asia is not feeling the love and continuing the drop for now anyway. I expect it to chop a bit during Asia and possibly during London also. However if any tape bombs are dropped during the London session regarding Greece then it could pop either way depending on the news. Any release of the debt deal being finished may be muted since now there is more focus on the Troika and whether or not Greece can push the austerity package through their parliament.

The 15 minute definitely shows major intent to the downside and not much interest in a sustained retrace. If the Asian market does push it further down then I will be looking for a pullback to the 1.3090- 1.3100 level and look for a short during the London session.

Take care and Happy Trading


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