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Fx Commentary EUR/USD February 15, 2012

Well guys Greece is not out of the woods yet. They are seemingly falling off the radar but still being watched. Yesterday the leader of the EZ finance ministers Jean-Claude Junker said Greece hasnt yet met all the conditions to get the bail out. Then I read other news about the debt write down that the camp of hold outs is getting larger. You just cant make this crap up. It seems like a day time TV soap opera my mom used to watch when I was a kid. Well I guess people make that kind of crap up everyday LOL.

Anyway the more I think about the situation from a neutral perspective I realize that they (the Germans) probably dont want Greece to leave the Euro or EU but do want to make the example of what not to do in order deter any of the other fiscally troubled countries from following the same path that got Greece where it is today. However the fact is that with such harsh austerity and no real reforms to get the economy competitive it seems to me the the EU is shooting them self in the foot because with out some way for Greece to grow economically they will never have a chance to get back on their feet. Portugal is not far off and Spain and Italy are knocking on the door. Ireland is a special case since they have internal structures that has already set them on a path to growth. Greece has nothing of the sort and will be a powder keg ready to blow very soon. So there is the main problem. yes Greece the proverbial little liar down the block that got in the gang through being deceitful and took advantage of his position for years lying and cheating. However this is nothing short of the blood in blood out type of gang. Letting Greece out leaves too much at stake setting precedence and making the rest of the gang exposed and looking weaker. Neither Germany nor the rest of the EU will let this happen so finding the balance between whipping the the worst of the bunch to make an example and then getting him to go to rehab seems like the most logical course. Having said that I am willing to bet that Greece wants rehabilitation but in reality will need a lot more help to get them through it. More than Germany wants to give as the gangs leader. I sure hope I’m wrong but if I am correct there will just be more band aids put on the gaping wound that is Greece and the EU is in for years of trouble.

I read a great article a week or so ago that described the flaws in the German thinking of “be more like us and all will be fine”. That surely looks good on the surface since Germany is the economical powerhouse right now but the fact is if there was balance of competitiveness throughout the EU then Germany would be just another one of the boys instead of anything special and this is not in Germanys best interests. They want to be the big boy on the block so they do have more control but the situation they are in is what you get when you want to have your cake and eat it too. Lets hope Germany can suck it up and just be one of the boys. I have my doubts.

Looking at the charts the daily has made the roll over for the push down but found support at the January 31 close and then bounced to the gap open from Monday February 6th. If there is going to be a retrace I would expect it today. Having said that the intraday price action has provided many large pull backs in the last few days so we may not see a retrace of note on the daily chart. Im looking for it to remain choppy during the day and keeping my mind open on direction.

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Take care and Happy Trading guys


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