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Fx Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD April 24, 2012

Looking at the EUR/USD and GBP/USD today at first glance I would think the Euro wants to go down while the GBP wants to go up. Having said that my bias is more to the downside for both pairs. The general weakness in the Euro is more attractive considering all the data yesterday from the EZ was a large disappointment with the big one being the German Manufacturing PMI having a 3 point drop. This data almost assures that Germany will slide into recession. (not guaranteed but probable)

This week will also see some bond sales from Italy which if go as I expect there will be a rush from the Euro.

Looking at the Euro chart with no fundamental bias I can find 3 pushes up from the lows keeping focus on just the previous 4 days of data. Then a reversal and 3 intraday pushes down before the EUR/USD turned and went back to consolidation for the Asian market today. Since this commentary is getting out late I can also point out that the Asian range today so far has been very tight at only 15 pips so far. this most often will mean a significant move is in store. I will be looking for some manipulation to the upside for the short during the training room today.

The way I am looking at the GBP/USD is it does have potential upside in it but if a risk off scenario plays out with a failed bond auction this week it could drop with the Euro but considering the EUR/GBP may also fall off the cliff the GBP/USD could hold steady so I will most likely stay clear of this pair today. I did manage a long trade yesterday for 24 pips. I took it on the same premise of the EUR/JPY confluence trade from Friday but when it made the 3rd pass and ran up for 30+ pips I wasnt going to wait for the 4th pass and just took the 24 and good thing because it would have got me BE on the 4th pass.

Forex News Today

The calendar is a bit busy today starting with the Public Sector Borrowing from the UK and is expected to show a climb in the budget deficit  in the UK. I have my doubts this will be as high impact with the market focused on the EZ right now but a big surprise to the downside (better than expected) may have a rising effect for the GBP. From the EZ we have Industrial New Orders and Belgium NBB Business climate both of which are supposed to be better figures than last month. If these surprise to the downside it will show that a recession is even closer than figured and should have a negative effect for the Euro. What is not on the list of releases today is an Italian bond auction. I have been too busy this morning to find out exactly what they are auctioning but you should keep your ears open on Talking Forex for any reports on it. Finally the US has S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and two other low impact events. Any surprise to the upside from consumer confidence and new home sales and I would expect the USD to gain some strength. Surprising to the downside may have a muted effect since we do have the Fed rate and statement late Wednesday.

Happy Trading




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