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FX Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD April 5, 2012

Hi all. Well its not the prettiest level 2 I have seen but as it stands we have had the 2nd drop on the EUR/USD. We also have 3 levels of intraday drop so at this point the most likely scenario is the pullback before the next push down. Considering the risk off situation that is going on with equities we may not get the pullback so I will just be waiting for the stop run to the upside and looking for the short after the European markets open.

The GBP/USD is a bit trickier as it has a possible 3 levels down and has come into some daily support along with the 200EMA from the 4hr chart and shows some bottoming support. In order to short this pair today I would like to see it come up and test the hourly 200EMA and see a trap move at that point. The trap at yesterdays high would also suffice. The testing of the either area will be a 90+ pip move from the lows also which adds some probability but I will most likely be keeping a closer eye on the EUR/USD.

Todays News

In the news today there is only the German Industrial production scheduled for the Eurozone. It is expected to drop from 1.3% last month to -0.03 of which if it does come out as expected it will mean that Europe is sliding deeper towards recession as a whole since Germany is the last of the bunch who sees it and being the Eurozones main economic powerhouse once they do go into recession its a slippery slope for Europe.

The UK has their Asset Purchase Facility and though are expected to leave it unchanged there has been talk from a couple of the MPC members that they may have more room to ease meaning they actually could surprise with adding more to the facility. Im not holding my breath for that but there is a chance. This will be released at the same time as the rate statement which shouldnt get much reaction until the statement comes out a bit later.

The US also has Unemployment claims expected to be roughly the same and its NEISR GDP Estimate which is expected to be barely above zero. Any surprise here to the up or down side I think will be USD positive as a big deviation up will bring on the decoupling theory and stocks may rise along with the USD and a big surprise down will mean risk is off again as it has been the last couple days and the USD will benefit from that. The former scenario does have the possibility of creating a risk on environment and the USD will suffer so keep that in mind and trade the manipulation.

Happy Trading



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