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FX Commentary EUR/USD, GBP,USD March 27, 2012

The EUR/USD didnt quite go as I expected yesterday. It did make the nice move down after the end of the Asian box but didnt provide a nice entry so I missed that trade. However once it hit the lows it gave a beautiful day trade long, which booked 75 pips for the day. It was kind of funny. As I am making the video of the trade and was seriously thinking of closing it manually since it had made 3 intraday levels up and was forming some pin bars. Then it just popped. It got me thinking that there was a Bernanke speech yesterday so I looked at my news source and sure enough hes hinting at more QE. As I am rushing to move my take profit  away from current price and POP I’m out. My fingers weren’t quite quick enough and I missed another 70 pips. I have a very strict rule for myself of not chasing trades and wasn’t going to risk getting back in unless it made a nice pullback and gave me a nice entry and it just never looked back. Still had a great day and now the market is a bit clearer for the next level to the upside.

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The GBP/USD was pretty much the same set up but wasn’t quite as clear on the entry. It had hit its previous days low and the risk added a couple more pips but it was still a nice entry. This one I didnt take as the markets were still in level 3 and that adds more risk also. However good job to any members who caught either one of these trades.

Today we will be looking for a push up to level 2 and most likely a test of the daily 200EMA on the EUR/USD at 1.3454 and the recent daily highs on the GBP/USD at the 1.6085 level.

There is only a couple news releases to watch today with the GfK German consumer climate which is supposed to increase and with yesterdays IFO consumer climate better than expected it may just do the same. Then there is UK CBI realized sales expected to drop again and finally S&P housing data and Consumer confidence numbers from the US. I expect these to be used more as a manipulation tool than market movers today.

Happy trading guys


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