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FX Commentary EUR/USD, GBP/USD September 13, 2012

The EUR/USD is clearer today with a second push to the upside. It was hard for me to call the price action from Monday a third push chop scenario but it seems clearer that it was at this point. Today I will be expecting the next push up and if the Fed does what everybody is hoping for and start up the presses then it will be an extended move. Having said that I would expect the smart money to try and clear out the weak holders before hand and maybe test the highs from yesterday before coming back to do a stop run to the lows of the New York session around 1.2874.

The GBP/USD has seen the same sort of price action and the third level chop on Monday is clearer. The move yesterday was as I expected in the Sept.12 forex commentary and much shorter than the EUR/USD as the EUR/GBP went bezerk crushing its ADR by about 50%. Today will be different though with this big news being USD based we will most likely see a decent move from the GBP also. The most likely place to see the manipulation will be the lows of the New York session but there is a chance it will occur around the psych level of 1.6100.

Forex News Today

News is actually light with just a few to mention besides the big Bernanke fiasco. They are the ECB Monthly Bulletin which I doubt will be much to speak of. There is also US PPI and Unemployment claims but these will most likely take a back seat to the Fed Rate announcement and press conference. However if the PPI figures make a surprise to the upside then there may be some that get on the wagon of the Fed can print and we will have some volatility.

A Bit More On The ESM

We did see the German Courts give the green light to the ESM yesterday. However there were some conditions and Finance minister Schauble did some damage control during a TV press conference. This was posted on Zero Hedge not long after.

German FinMin Schaeuble has been on TV for the last 30 minutes explaining the ‘bailout’ reality to the ugly mob that is the German taxpayers. Less than 12 hours after the German Constitutional Court rejected complaints against the ESM – though added conditions capping German indebtedness – it seems the need to explain the limited ‘unlimited’ liability to the people is high. To wit:

  • NEIN – ”No country in Europe” can hope for the ECB to “fire up the money printing press,” Schaeuble says. Germany “will make sure that it doesn’t happen”

We are not any where closer to a solution than we were 6 months ago. Plus yesterday the French were pressuring Spain to ask for the bailout. Even as Rajoy a day earlier was saying  Ahh lets look at these conditions and if I dont like them then naaaaa. Like he has a choice.

Happy Trading


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